MLB teams · AL East · 2026 season
Tampa Bay Rays 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 72 Tampa Bay Rays games with a final result between July 10 and October 28, 2026. The Rays went 44-28 in them. Leo gave the Rays better than an even chance in 51 of those games, and they won 35. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 9 of 21. Leo's average win chance for the Rays was 55%. The side Leo favored won 47 of the 72 games where Leo favored a side. Of these, 8 were postseason games (5-3).
44-28
Rays record in games Leo analyzed
47-25
Leo’s reads on Rays games (right‑wrong)
35-16
Rays record when Leo favored them
55%
Leo’s average win chance for the Rays
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Rays record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Rays on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 14 | 12-2 | 61% |
| Nick Martinez | 13 | 9-4 | 61% |
| Freddy Peralta | 12 | 10-2 | 42% |
| Ian Seymour | 11 | 3-8 | 55% |
| Griffin Jax | 10 | 6-4 | 61% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Rays, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Rays result is whether the Rays won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Rays) | Leo favored | Rays result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 post | vs Brewers | 46% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Oct 27 post | vs Brewers | 69% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Oct 26 post | vs Brewers | 38% | Brewers | No result | |
| Oct 24 post | at Brewers | 39% | Brewers | No result | |
| Oct 23 post | at Brewers | 29% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Oct 19 post | vs Guardians | 65% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 18 post | at Guardians | 51% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Oct 17 post | at Guardians | 72% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 16 post | at Guardians | 72% | Rays | No result | |
| Oct 13 post | vs Guardians | 28% | Guardians | Won | Wrong |
| Oct 12 post | vs Guardians | 70% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Oct 7 post | at Yankees | 39% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Oct 5 post | vs Yankees | 28% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Oct 3 post | vs Yankees | 66% | Rays | No result | |
| Sep 26 | at Phillies | 67% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 25 | at Phillies | 29% | Phillies | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 24 | at Yankees | 28% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Sep 23 | at Yankees | 28% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Sep 22 | at Yankees | 47% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | at Yankees | 51% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 20 | vs Red Sox | 73% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 19 | vs Red Sox | 61% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 18 | vs Red Sox | 52% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 16 | vs Athletics | 73% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 13 | vs Astros | 32% | Astros | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 12 | vs Astros | 56% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 11 | vs Astros | 63% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 9 | at Braves | 51% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 8 | at Braves | 71% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 6 | at Rangers | 63% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 5 | at Rangers | 67% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 4 | at Rangers | 71% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Sep 3 | at Rangers | 49% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 2 | vs Mets | 73% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 1 | vs Mets | 42% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 31 | vs Mets | 73% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 30 | vs Padres | 70% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 29 | vs Padres | 72% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | vs Padres | 54% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 26 | at Tigers | 28% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 25 | at Tigers | 49% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 24 | at Tigers | 73% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 23 | at Orioles | 69% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 22 | at Orioles | 67% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 21 | at Orioles | 29% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Aug 20 | vs Blue Jays | 74% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 19 | vs Blue Jays | 74% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 18 | vs Blue Jays | 70% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 17 | vs Orioles | 65% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 16 | vs Orioles | 30% | Orioles | Lost | Right |
| Aug 15 | vs Orioles | 59% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | vs Orioles | 60% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | at Athletics | 68% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Athletics | 66% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 10 | at Athletics | 65% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 9 | at Mariners | 56% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 8 | at Mariners | 54% | Rays | No result | |
| Aug 7 | at Mariners | 54% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 5 | at Rockies | 65% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 4 | at Rockies | 60% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 3 | at Rockies | 59% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Aug 2 | vs White Sox | 63% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 1 | vs White Sox | 46% | White Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 31 | vs White Sox | 57% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | vs Rangers | 55% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 28 | vs Rangers | 62% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | vs Guardians | 62% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 25 | vs Guardians | 67% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 24 | vs Guardians | 60% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 23 | at Blue Jays | 77% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Blue Jays | 67% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Blue Jays | 57% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 20 | at Blue Jays | 49% | Blue Jays | No result | |
| Jul 19 | at Red Sox | 29% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 18 | at Red Sox | 28% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 17 | at Red Sox | 36% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 17 | at Red Sox | 33% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 12 | vs Mariners | 57% | Rays | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | vs Mariners | 56% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 10 | vs Mariners | 67% | Rays | Won | Right |
| Jul 9 | vs Yankees | 69% | Rays | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Yankees | 61% | Rays | No result |
More from the AL East
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The 2027 season starts March 25, 2027. Until then, see all 30 teams, every MLB game page and Leo’s NFL and NBA cards.