MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Yankees (Game 1) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 1:05 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rays vs Yankees
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for New York Yankees
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rays 0, Yankees 2
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Carlos Rodón (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Nick Martinez: 8.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 1.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the New York Yankees bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 1.0 innings), unflagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Martinez vs Carlos Rodón |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 77 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.94 | 2.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.5 | 9.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 15.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.3% | 26.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.5% | 11.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 4.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.1% | 39.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.9% | 60.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Carlos Rodón a 1-point edge over Nick Martinez, driven mainly by K/9 (9.7 vs 5.5) and K-BB% (15.6% vs 11.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.55 against +0.85).
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.718 | 0.761 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.318 | 0.333 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 23.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.697 (-0.032 vs szn) | 0.735 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.61 (+0.066 vs szn) | 5.18 (+0.618 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 (-0.013 vs szn) | 0.324 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.0% (-0.6% vs szn) | 23.5% (-1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.308.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 95-60 | 89-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.55 | +0.85 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.99 | 3.71 |
| Season OPS | 0.732 | 0.721 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.6% | 24.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.688 | 0.713 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.5/10, Dominant | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 17.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.54 | 3.18 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.69 | 1.41 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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