MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 18, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 7:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Red Sox vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Red Sox 4, Rays 2
How the analysis held up
Boston Red Sox won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 12.1 points — the team-strength model favored Tampa Bay Rays, the run-projection model favored Boston Red Sox. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Ranger Suarez (Boston Red Sox), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ian Seymour: 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: Ian Seymour, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 7.20 ERA, and the opposing starter (1.59 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Ranger Suarez vs Ian Seymour |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 31% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.28 | 4.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.3% | 22.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.7% | 29.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.5% | 6.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.2% | 39.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.8% | 60.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Ranger Suarez a 4-point edge over Ian Seymour, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.57 vs 1.77) and ERA (3.28 vs 4.38).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.55 against +0.51).
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.635 | 0.751 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.287 | 0.329 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.4% | 18.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.698 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.705 (-0.029 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.82 (-0.568 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.310 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.311 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.5% | 17.3% (-1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.311 wOBA to 0.310. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 83-70 | 93-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.55 | +0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.39 | 4.58 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.84 | 4.07 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.735 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.742 | 0.691 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.4/10, Effective | 6.3/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.6/10, Normal | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.3 | 21.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.86 | 3.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.29 | 0.90 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.5 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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