MLB teams · AL East · 2026 season
Baltimore Orioles 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 63 Baltimore Orioles games with a final result between July 10 and September 25, 2026. The Orioles went 33-30 in them. Leo gave the Orioles better than an even chance in 28 of those games, and they won 18. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 15 of 35. Leo's average win chance for the Orioles was 49%. The side Leo favored won 38 of the 63 games where Leo favored a side.
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Orioles record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Orioles on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | 13 | 8-5 | 52% |
| Trevor Rogers | 12 | 6-6 | 54% |
| Shane Baz | 12 | 4-8 | 50.1% |
| Kyle Bradish | 10 | 5-5 | 45% |
| Chris Bassitt | 8 | 5-3 | 44% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Orioles, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Orioles result is whether the Orioles won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Orioles) | Leo favored | Orioles result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | at Yankees | 68% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 25 | at Yankees | 42% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 23 | vs Blue Jays | 27% | Blue Jays | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | vs Blue Jays | 61% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 21 | vs Blue Jays | 40% | Blue Jays | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 20 | vs Brewers | 27% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 19 | vs Brewers | 55% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 18 | vs Brewers | 40% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 16 | at Mets | 34% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 14 | at Mets | 67% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Blue Jays | 29% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 12 | at Blue Jays | 28% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 11 | at Blue Jays | 57% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Sep 9 | vs Guardians | 32% | Guardians | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | vs Guardians | 48% | Guardians | Lost | Right |
| Sep 6 | vs Red Sox | 29% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 5 | vs Red Sox | 27% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 4 | vs Red Sox | 40% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 3 | vs Red Sox | 36% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Sep 2 | at Rockies | 69% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 1 | at Rockies | 74% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 31 | at Rockies | 59% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Athletics | 65% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 29 | at Athletics | 74% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Athletics | 71% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 27 | at Cardinals | 49% | Cardinals | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | at Cardinals | 45% | Cardinals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 25 | at Cardinals | 38% | Cardinals | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 23 | vs Rays | 31% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 22 | vs Rays | 33% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 21 | vs Rays | 71% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 20 | vs Yankees | 30% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 19 | vs Yankees | 28% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 18 | vs Yankees | 44% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 17 | at Rays | 35% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 16 | at Rays | 70% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Rays | 41% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | at Rays | 40% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 12 | at Twins | 49% | Twins | Lost | Right |
| Aug 11 | at Twins | 46% | Twins | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 10 | at Twins | 51% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 9 | at Rangers | 47% | Rangers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 8 | at Rangers | 49% | Rangers | Lost | Right |
| Aug 7 | at Rangers | 51% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 6 | vs Angels | 60% | Orioles | No result | |
| Aug 5 | vs Angels | 56% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 4 | vs Angels | 62% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Aug 2 | vs Phillies | 59% | Orioles | No result | |
| Aug 1 | vs Phillies | 88% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 31 | vs Phillies | 67% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 29 | at Tigers | 33% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 28 | at Tigers | 47% | Tigers | Lost | Right |
| Jul 27 | at Tigers | 45% | Tigers | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 26 | vs Braves | 56% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 25 | vs Braves | 58% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 24 | vs Braves | 63% | Orioles | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Red Sox | 39% | Red Sox | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | at Red Sox | 27% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Red Sox | 37% | Red Sox | No result | |
| Jul 20 | at Red Sox | 30% | Red Sox | Lost | Right |
| Jul 19 | at Astros | 57% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 18 | at Astros | 56% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 17 | at Astros | 51% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 12 | vs Royals | 67% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 11 | vs Royals | 67% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 10 | vs Royals | 65% | Orioles | Won | Right |
| Jul 9 | vs Cubs | 41% | Cubs | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Cubs | 45% | Cubs | No result |
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