MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 7:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 63.2% against a 57.0% no-vig market number, a 6.2% model edge at -140. Lab Rating 7.8/10: conviction 4.11, pitching plan 40, offense 33.75. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Below average (4.0/10). It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is a touch above its season form (+0.020 OPS); Houston Astros is a touch below its season form (-0.036 OPS).
Final result
Astros 1, Rays 3
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Miguel Ullola actually pitched better tonight: 1.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 3, 2.1 fewer than the 5.1 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Miguel Ullola vs Drew Rasmussen |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 25% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 81 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.38 | 2.83 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.3 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 30.0% | 21.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 33.3% | 25.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.3% | 4.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 21.4% | 50.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 78.6% | 49.8% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Drew Rasmussen the edge over the Houston Astros pitching plan (7 points on Leo's pitcher score). Miguel Ullola is projected for only 1 innings, with the Houston Astros bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Drew Rasmussen's own line against the Houston Astros blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Houston Astros, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Miguel Ullola (about 1 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.61 rather than Miguel Ullola's own 3.38. Whole-game, that is 3.37 for the Tampa Bay Rays against 3.61 on the other side, so the blended read leans Tampa Bay Rays.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.39 against -0.28).
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.689 | 0.753 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.302 | 0.328 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.9% | 17.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.684 (-0.040 vs szn) | 0.717 (-0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.554 vs szn) | 4.43 (-0.095 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.298 (-0.020 vs szn) | 0.315 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.5% (+1.8% vs szn) | 16.2% (-2.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.315 wOBA to 0.298.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-72 | 87-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.28 | +0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.48 | 4.52 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.76 | 4.13 |
| Season OPS | 0.725 | 0.733 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 18.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.728 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.2/10, Average | 4.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 19.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.92 | 5.59 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.31 | 1.40 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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