MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, October 23, 2026 at American Family Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 71.1% model win probability and 8.7/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 71.1% against a 63.0% no-vig market number, a 8.1% model edge at -178. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 11 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, October 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Martinez vs Jacob Misiorowski |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 55°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 74 | 85 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.10 | 1.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.09 | 0.80 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.4 | 13.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.5% | 31.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.1% | 37.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.6% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.0% | 47.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.0% | 52.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jacob Misiorowski a 11-point edge over Nick Martinez, driven mainly by K/9 (13.0 vs 5.4) and K-BB% (31.3% vs 11.5%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 5-5 in their last 10; Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.53).
| Metric | Rays | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | Not available | Not available |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | Not available | Not available |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.716 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.787 (+0.043 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.60 (+0.057 vs szn) | 5.20 (+0.064 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.316 | 0.348 (+0.020 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% (+4.5% vs szn) | 24.1% (+2.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.348 wOBA to 0.316. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.020 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 24.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 98-64 | 103-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.53 | +1.32 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.01 | 3.81 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.744 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.752 | 0.759 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.5/10, Normal | 3.0/10, Fresh |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | Not available |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 3.0/10, Fresh |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 9.3 | 0.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.86 | Not available |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.39 | Not available |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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