MLB matchup analysis
Athletics vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Athletics vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Athletics 3, Rays 4
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Nick Martinez (Tampa Bay Rays), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brady Basso: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 2.2 IP, 4 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 5.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Athletics scored 3, 2.2 fewer than the 5.2 pregame projection.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 4, 1.6 fewer than the 5.6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Brady Basso vs Nick Martinez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 2⅓ | 6 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 54 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.50 | 2.94 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 11.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.9% | 40.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.1% | 59.2% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Nick Martinez the edge over the Athletics pitching plan (16 points on Leo's pitcher score). Brady Basso is projected for only 2⅓ innings, with the Athletics bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Nick Martinez's own line against the Athletics blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Athletics, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Brady Basso (about 2⅓ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.53 rather than Brady Basso's own 4.50. Whole-game, that is 4.28 for the Tampa Bay Rays against 4.53 on the other side, so the blended read leans Tampa Bay Rays.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Athletics are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.47 against -1.35).
| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.747 | 0.769 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.334 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.1% | 16.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.718 | 0.722 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.29 (-0.056 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.051 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 | 0.316 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.9% (-0.6% vs szn) | 16.6% (-1.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Athletics have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.316.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-90 | 91-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.35 | +0.47 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.34 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.69 | 4.09 |
| Season OPS | 0.720 | 0.735 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.5% | 18.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.718 | 0.683 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Athletics and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.2/10, Struggling | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.7 | 18.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 7.36 | 4.34 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.91 | 1.18 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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