MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 4:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Red Sox vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Red Sox 1, Rays 2
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 27 points — the team-strength model favored Tampa Bay Rays, the run-projection model favored Boston Red Sox. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Brayan Bello (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Freddy Peralta: 8.0 IP, 1 ER (1.13 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 0.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Boston Red Sox pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Boston Red Sox scored 1, 2.9 fewer than the 3.9 pregame projection.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 2, 1.5 fewer than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Brayan Bello vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 23% precipitation chance, 1 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 59 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.49 | 4.56 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.3% | 13.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.2% | 8.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 62.9% | 44.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 37.1% | 55.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Freddy Peralta a 0-point edge over Brayan Bello, driven mainly by K/9 (8.4 vs 7.2) and expected innings (5.3 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.54 against +0.51).
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.623 | 0.771 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.283 | 0.337 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.3% | 19.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.698 (-0.034 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.64 (-0.725 vs szn) | 4.43 (-0.130 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.308 (-0.015 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.5% | 18.0% (-0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.308. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-70 | 93-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.54 | +0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.37 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.83 | 4.05 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.734 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 18.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.713 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.0/10, Normal | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.4/10, Normal | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.29 | 2.74 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.22 | 0.83 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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