MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 1:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Astros vs Rays
The case for Houston Astros
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Astros 4, Rays 14
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 56.8 points — the team-strength model favored Houston Astros, the run-projection model favored Tampa Bay Rays. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Hayden Wesneski (Houston Astros) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Freddy Peralta actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 3 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 7 earned runs over 5.0 innings (12.60 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 4 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Houston Astros scored 4, 1.6 more than the 2.4 pregame projection.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 14, 10.2 more than the 3.8 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Tampa Bay Rays's offense scored 10.2 more runs than projected, and the Houston Astros bullpen allowed 7 earned runs over 5.0 relief innings (12.60 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Hayden Wesneski vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 13% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.70 | 4.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.2% | 21.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.1% | 8.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.7% | 44.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.3% | 55.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Hayden Wesneski a 8-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.74 vs 1.31) and WHIP (1.13 vs 1.34).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.46 against -0.35).
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.684 | 0.733 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.299 | 0.320 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 16.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.687 (-0.035 vs szn) | 0.723 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.531 vs szn) | 4.59 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.017 vs szn) | 0.317 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.9% (+2.1% vs szn) | 16.2% (-2.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.300.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-74 | 89-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.35 | +0.46 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.58 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.81 | 4.11 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.732 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 18.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.726 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.6/10, Tired | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.6/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 18.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.22 | 3.38 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.27 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 7.3 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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