MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 7:15 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rays vs Phillies
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rays 12, Phillies 1
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Aaron Nola: 3.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 1.0 IP, 3 ER (27.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 6.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 9 earned runs allowed over 8.0 relief innings (10.13 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Griffin Jax vs Aaron Nola |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 60°F, 28% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.53 | 4.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.6% | 7.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.2% | 47.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.8% | 52.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Griffin Jax a 12-point edge over Aaron Nola, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.20 vs 1.90) and ERA (3.53 vs 4.67).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.56 against +0.07).
| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.638 | 0.629 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.287 | 0.286 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.9% | 17.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.710 (-0.018 vs szn) | 0.650 (-0.054 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.376 vs szn) | 3.63 (-0.755 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.292 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.6% (+0.9% vs szn) | 18.8% (-3.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.292.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 97-63 | 87-73 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.56 | +0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.55 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.99 | 4.32 |
| Season OPS | 0.725 | 0.705 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.7% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.748 | 0.704 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 3.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.7 | 16.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 9 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.18 | 5.94 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.10 | 1.92 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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