MLB teams · AL East · 2026 season
Boston Red Sox 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 69 Boston Red Sox games with a final result between July 10 and September 30, 2026. The Red Sox went 42-27 in them. Leo gave the Red Sox better than an even chance in 56 of those games, and they won 40. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 2 of 13. Leo's average win chance for the Red Sox was 60%. The side Leo favored won 51 of the 69 games where Leo favored a side. Of these, 1 was a postseason game (0-1).
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Red Sox record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Red Sox on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 14 | 9-5 | 66% |
| Payton Tolle | 12 | 10-2 | 66% |
| Ranger Suarez | 11 | 8-3 | 59% |
| Patrick Sandoval | 11 | 5-6 | 48% |
| Jake Bennett | 11 | 6-5 | 65% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Red Sox, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Red Sox result is whether the Red Sox won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Red Sox) | Leo favored | Red Sox result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 post | at Yankees | 41% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Sep 27 | vs Cubs | 28% | Cubs | Lost | Right |
| Sep 25 | vs Cubs | 62% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 24 | vs Guardians | 32% | Guardians | Lost | Right |
| Sep 23 | vs Guardians | 61% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 22 | vs Guardians | 45% | Guardians | Lost | Right |
| Sep 20 | at Rays | 27% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 19 | at Rays | 39% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Sep 18 | at Rays | 48% | Rays | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 17 | at Rangers | 69% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | at Rangers | 69% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 13 | vs Royals | 68% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 12 | vs Royals | 54% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 11 | vs Royals | 73% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 9 | vs Angels | 73% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 8 | vs Angels | 28% | Angels | Lost | Right |
| Sep 6 | at Orioles | 71% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 5 | at Orioles | 73% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 4 | at Orioles | 60% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 3 | at Orioles | 64% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Sep 2 | vs Mariners | 28% | Mariners | Lost | Right |
| Sep 1 | vs Mariners | 28% | Mariners | Lost | Right |
| Aug 31 | vs Mariners | 69% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Yankees | 66% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 29 | at Yankees | 68% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 29 | at Yankees | 53% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Yankees | 27% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | at Marlins | 71% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 25 | at Marlins | 69% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 24 | at Marlins | 52% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 23 | vs Giants | 70% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 22 | vs Giants | 28% | Giants | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 21 | vs Giants | 58% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 19 | vs Diamondbacks | 64% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | vs Diamondbacks | 74% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 17 | vs Diamondbacks | 72% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 16 | at Pirates | 32% | Pirates | Lost | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Pirates | 53% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 14 | at Pirates | 54% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 13 | at Blue Jays | 54% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 12 | at Blue Jays | 58% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 11 | at Blue Jays | 56% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 10 | at Blue Jays | 62% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 9 | vs Athletics | 69% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 8 | vs Athletics | 69% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | vs Athletics | 68% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 6 | vs White Sox | 61% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 5 | vs White Sox | 57% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 4 | vs White Sox | 60% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 2 | at Dodgers | 53% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Aug 1 | at Dodgers | 69% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 31 | at Dodgers | 73% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 30 | at Athletics | 96% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 29 | at Athletics | 99% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 28 | at Athletics | 69% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 27 | at Athletics | 70% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 26 | vs Blue Jays | 71% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 25 | vs Blue Jays | 69% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | vs Blue Jays | 75% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 22 | vs Orioles | 61% | Red Sox | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 22 | vs Orioles | 73% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 21 | vs Orioles | 63% | Red Sox | No result | |
| Jul 20 | vs Orioles | 70% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 19 | vs Rays | 71% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 18 | vs Rays | 72% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 17 | vs Rays | 64% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 17 | vs Rays | 67% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 12 | at Mets | 68% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 11 | at Mets | 63% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 10 | at Mets | 64% | Red Sox | Won | Right |
| Jul 9 | at White Sox | 57% | Red Sox | No result | |
| Jul 7 | at White Sox | 62% | Red Sox | No result |
More from the AL East
Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays · Toronto Blue Jays
The 2027 season starts March 25, 2027. Until then, see all 30 teams, every MLB game page and Leo’s NFL and NBA cards.