MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, October 5, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.1% model win probability and 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.1% against a 53.2% no-vig market number, a 18.8% model edge at -117. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 24 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Dominant (8.0/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch below its season form (-0.020 OPS); Tampa Bay Rays is in a cold stretch (-0.087 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Yankees 2, Rays 5
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Freddy Peralta actually pitched better tonight: 4.2 IP, 1 ER (1.93 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 2 ER (4.15 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the New York Yankees pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 4.1 relief innings (2.08 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
New York Yankees scored 2, 3.4 fewer than the 5.4 pregame projection.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 5, 2.1 more than the 2.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (1.93 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and New York Yankees's offense scored 3.4 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 19% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 84 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.95 | 4.42 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.1 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 25.0% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 31.4% | 21.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 8.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.6% | 44.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.4% | 55.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cam Schlittler a 24-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by K-BB% (25.0% vs 12.7%) and ERA (1.95 vs 4.42).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.86 against +0.53).
| Metric | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.700 | 0.641 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.308 | 0.285 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 29.3% | 22.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.730 (+0.010 vs szn) | 0.703 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.05 (+0.460 vs szn) | 4.81 (+0.266 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 | 0.310 (-0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.7% (-1.0% vs szn) | 20.7% (+1.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.310.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 93-68 | 98-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.86 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.59 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.73 | 4.01 |
| Season OPS | 0.720 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.752 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.7/10, Normal | 4.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 8.0/10, Dominant | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 3.2/10, Fresh | 3.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 8.7 | 1.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.04 | 0.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.58 | 0.00 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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