MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.9/10: conviction 8.74, pitching plan 30.67, offense 29.73. Leo projects 72.5% against a 57.8% no-vig market number, a 14.7% model edge at -145. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 18 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Average (4.8/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is near its season form (+0.000 OPS); Tampa Bay Rays is a touch below its season form (-0.044 OPS).
Final result
Rays 2, Yankees 9
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side Leo's model favored.
Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Mason Englert: 5.2 IP, 2 ER (3.18 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 8 ER (19.64 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 4.1 relief innings (2.08 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 2, 1.9 fewer than the 3.9 pregame projection.
New York Yankees scored 9, 4.3 more than the 4.7 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Mason Englert vs Gerrit Cole |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 0% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 44 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.95 | 3.63 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.55 | 1.10 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.2% | 20.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.2% | 25.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 37.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.0% | 63.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Gerrit Cole a 29-point edge over Mason Englert, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.57 vs 2.97) and WHIP (1.10 vs 1.55).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.89 against +0.50).
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.685 | 0.718 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.316 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 23.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.697 (-0.030 vs szn) | 0.741 (+0.020 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.57 (+0.046 vs szn) | 5.21 (+0.626 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.307 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.326 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.6% | 23.5% (-1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.326 wOBA to 0.307. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 96-61 | 90-67 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.50 | +0.89 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.03 | 3.70 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.718 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.6% | 24.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.751 | 0.709 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 4.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.7/10, Dominant | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.4/10, Normal | 4.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.7 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.14 | 3.93 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.72 | 1.53 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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