MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Cleveland Guardians moneyline
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Cleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.0% model win probability and 9.6/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.0% against a 45.1% no-vig market number, a 26.9% model edge at +117. Cleveland Guardians owns the starting pitcher edge by 20 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Cleveland Guardians's pen efficiency: Effective (6.3/10).
Final result
Guardians 1, Rays 3
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Parker Messick (Cleveland Guardians), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Freddy Peralta: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Cleveland Guardians scored 1, 5.9 fewer than the 6.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Cleveland Guardians's offense scored 5.9 fewer runs than projected, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, October 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Parker Messick vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 80 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.56 | 4.42 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.3 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.3% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.8% | 21.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.6% | 8.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.7% | 44.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.3% | 55.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Parker Messick a 20-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by ERA (2.56 vs 4.42) and K-BB% (19.3% vs 12.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.53 against +0.07).
| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | Not available | Not available |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | Not available | Not available |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.822 (+0.126 vs szn) | 0.681 (-0.047 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.54 (+1.353 vs szn) | 4.86 (+0.314 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.357 (+0.048 vs szn) | 0.303 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 15.5% (-5.3% vs szn) | 22.9% (+4.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.357 wOBA to 0.303. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.048 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-77 | 98-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.07 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.19 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.12 | 4.01 |
| Season OPS | 0.696 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.679 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 4.7/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 8.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 1 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.63 | 6.48 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.04 | 1.32 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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