MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Yankees (Game 2) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.4/10: conviction 0, pitching plan 40, offense 34.02. Leo projects 52.7% against a 54.6% no-vig market number, a -2.0% model edge at -125. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Average (5.4/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch above its season form (+0.025 OPS); Tampa Bay Rays is a touch below its season form (-0.043 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Rays 6, Yankees 1
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Drew Rasmussen (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Max Fried: 6.2 IP, 1 ER (1.35 ERA) against 6.2 IP, 4 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 2 earned runs allowed over 2.1 relief innings (7.71 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 6, 4 more than the 2 pregame projection.
New York Yankees scored 1, 3.6 fewer than the 4.6 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Max Fried, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.40 ERA, and the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 2.1 innings), unflagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 82 | 80 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.63 | 2.64 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 21.4% | 16.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 26.0% | 23.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.7% | 7.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.4% | 50.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.6% | 49.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Drew Rasmussen a 2-point edge over Max Fried, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.6 vs 2.6) and K-BB% (21.4% vs 16.2%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.55 against +0.85).
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.686 | 0.745 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.326 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 23.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.697 (-0.032 vs szn) | 0.735 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.61 (+0.066 vs szn) | 5.18 (+0.618 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 (-0.013 vs szn) | 0.324 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.0% (-0.6% vs szn) | 23.5% (-1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.308.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 95-61 | 90-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.55 | +0.85 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.99 | 3.71 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.720 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.6% | 24.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.682 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.5/10, Dominant | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 17.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.54 | 3.18 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.69 | 1.41 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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