MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 0, pitching plan 40, offense 25. Leo projects 53.5% against a 56.4% no-vig market number, a -2.9% model edge at -136. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Effective (7.4/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 1.9 points from 55.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 53.5%.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, October 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jacob Misiorowski vs Drew Rasmussen |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 1% precipitation chance, 13 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 85 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.80 | 2.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.80 | 0.91 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 13.0 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 31.3% | 21.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 37.9% | 26.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.3% | 50.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jacob Misiorowski a 3-point edge over Drew Rasmussen, driven mainly by K/9 (13.0 vs 9.1) and K-BB% (31.3% vs 21.2%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.53).
| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | Not available | Not available |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | Not available | Not available |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 103-59 | 98-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.32 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.14 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.81 | 4.01 |
| Season OPS | 0.744 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.759 | 0.752 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.6/10, High risk | 9.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 7.4/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 9.6/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.0 | 19.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.29 | 4.12 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.86 | 1.53 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.5 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET.