MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, October 12, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Cleveland Guardians
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 7.66, pitching plan 40, offense 17.17. Leo projects 70.3% against a 60.4% no-vig market number, a 9.9% model edge at -161. Tampa Bay Rays owns the starting pitcher edge by 13 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Effective (7.4/10). Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is near its season form (+0.015 OPS); Cleveland Guardians is near its season form (+0.011 OPS).
Final result
Guardians 7, Rays 3
How the analysis held up
Cleveland Guardians won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Foster Griffin: 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 2 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (15.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Cleveland Guardians scored 7, 4.4 more than the 2.6 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen allowed 5 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (15.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and Cleveland Guardians's offense scored 4.4 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Foster Griffin vs Drew Rasmussen |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.60 | 2.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.21 | 0.91 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.9% | 26.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.9% | 49.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.1% | 50.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Drew Rasmussen a 13-point edge over Foster Griffin, driven mainly by WHIP (0.91 vs 1.21) and K-BB% (21.2% vs 15.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 2.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.53 against +0.07).
| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.707 | 0.743 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.309 | 0.316 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 13.9% | 22.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.794 (+0.098 vs szn) | 0.680 (-0.048 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.36 (+1.172 vs szn) | 4.73 (+0.190 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.347 (+0.037 vs szn) | 0.302 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 16.2% (-4.6% vs szn) | 22.3% (+3.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Guardians have been the better offense, 0.347 wOBA to 0.302. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.037 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-77 | 98-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.07 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.19 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.12 | 4.01 |
| Season OPS | 0.696 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.679 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.0/10, Tired | 4.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 7.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 3.6/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 9.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.13 | 1.86 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.04 | 0.62 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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