MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Astros vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Astros 2, Rays 3
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Peter Lambert (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Ian Seymour actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Peter Lambert vs Ian Seymour |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 17% precipitation chance, 0 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.71 | 4.27 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.8% | 22.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.9% | 29.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.8% | 39.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.2% | 60.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Ian Seymour a 2-point edge over Peter Lambert, driven mainly by K-BB% (22.8% vs 13.8%) and K/9 (11.0 vs 8.7).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.40 against -0.29).
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.678 | 0.747 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.298 | 0.325 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.2% | 16.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.686 (-0.036 vs szn) | 0.704 (-0.028 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.537 vs szn) | 4.25 (-0.264 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.299 (-0.018 vs szn) | 0.310 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.1% (+2.2% vs szn) | 16.3% (-2.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.310 wOBA to 0.299. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.013 wOBA). Astros are striking out at 24.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-73 | 88-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.29 | +0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.75 | 4.11 |
| Season OPS | 0.724 | 0.732 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 18.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.713 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.4/10, High risk | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.3/10, High risk | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 18.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.32 | 4.34 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.08 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.