MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rays vs Phillies
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rays 2, Phillies 0
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Cristopher Sánchez (Philadelphia Phillies) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Freddy Peralta actually pitched better tonight: 5.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 2 ER (2.57 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Philadelphia Phillies scored 0, 2.9 fewer than the 2.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.2 innings), unflagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 70°F, 0% precipitation chance, 15 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 6⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.42 | 2.91 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.7% | 21.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.4% | 27.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.7% | 64.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.3% | 35.7% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cristopher Sánchez a 16-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by K-BB% (21.7% vs 12.7%) and BB/9 (2.0 vs 3.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.49 against +0.14).
| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.638 | 0.626 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.287 | 0.284 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.0% | 17.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.693 (-0.032 vs szn) | 0.658 (-0.047 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.61 (+0.101 vs szn) | 3.81 (-0.591 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.306 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.295 (-0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.4% (+0.7% vs szn) | 19.0% (-2.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.306 wOBA to 0.295. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 96-63 | 87-72 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.49 | +0.14 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.51 | 4.41 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.01 | 4.27 |
| Season OPS | 0.726 | 0.707 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.7% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.681 | 0.707 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 2.4/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.7/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 9 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.13 | 6.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.17 | 1.99 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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