MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, October 26, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 8:00 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Brewers vs Rays
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Robert Gasser vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 71°F, 5% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.87 | 4.42 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.19 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.7% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.6% | 8.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.7% | 44.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.3% | 55.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Robert Gasser a 8-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by WHIP (1.19 vs 1.33) and BB/9 (2.9 vs 3.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10; Rays are 5-5 in their last 10. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.53).
| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | Not available | Not available |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | Not available | Not available |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | Not available | Not available |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.777 (+0.033 vs szn) | 0.901 (+0.173 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.50 (-0.636 vs szn) | 7.50 (+2.957 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.344 (+0.015 vs szn) | 0.386 (+0.065 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.3% (+2.3% vs szn) | 20.2% (+1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.386 wOBA to 0.344. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.065 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 24.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 103-59 | 98-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.32 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.14 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.81 | 4.01 |
| Season OPS | 0.744 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.759 | 0.679 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.8/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.6/10, Dominant | 4.4/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.90 | 4.09 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.90 | 1.73 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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