MLB teams · NL West · 2026 season
San Diego Padres 2026: every game Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed 68 San Diego Padres games with a final result between July 10 and October 7, 2026. The Padres went 46-22 in them. Leo gave the Padres better than an even chance in 34 of those games, and they won 24. When Leo had them below 50%, they won 22 of 34. Leo's average win chance for the Padres was 53%. The side Leo favored won 36 of the 68 games where Leo favored a side. Of these, 3 were postseason games (2-1).
Most used starters
Starts Leo analyzed (postseason included), the Padres record in them, and Leo’s average win chance for the Padres on those days.
| Starter | Starts | Team record | Leo’s avg chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 14 | 11-3 | 46% |
| Michael King | 13 | 7-6 | 55% |
| Casey Mize | 9 | 6-3 | 61% |
| Robbie Ray | 9 | 5-4 | 42% |
| Randy Vásquez | 7 | 6-1 | 54% |
Every game
- Leo’s chance is Leo’s win chance for the Padres, from its last read saved before first pitch.
- Leo favored is the team Leo gave the better chance to win.
- Padres result is whether the Padres won or lost.
- Leo’s read is Right when the team Leo favored won, and Wrong when it lost.
Newest first. Opponents link to the full game analysis where one exists.
| Date | Opponent | Leo’s chance (Padres) | Leo favored | Padres result | Leo’s read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 post | vs Brewers | 38% | Brewers | Lost | Right |
| Oct 6 post | vs Brewers | 73% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Oct 4 post | at Brewers | 29% | Brewers | No result | |
| Oct 3 post | at Brewers | 26% | Brewers | No result | |
| Sep 30 post | vs Cubs | 72% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 27 | vs Diamondbacks | 34% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 26 | vs Diamondbacks | 66% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 25 | vs Diamondbacks | 53% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Sep 24 | at Dodgers | 42% | Dodgers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 23 | at Dodgers | 27% | Dodgers | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 22 | at Dodgers | 37% | Dodgers | Lost | Right |
| Sep 20 | vs Marlins | 42% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 19 | vs Marlins | 64% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 18 | vs Marlins | 68% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 17 | at Rockies | 74% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 16 | at Rockies | 61% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 14 | at Rockies | 73% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 13 | at Giants | 61% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 12 | at Giants | 44% | Giants | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 11 | at Giants | 33% | Giants | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 9 | vs Nationals | 73% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 8 | vs Nationals | 72% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 7 | vs Nationals | 70% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Sep 6 | vs Yankees | 42% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 5 | vs Yankees | 46% | Yankees | Lost | Right |
| Sep 4 | vs Yankees | 27% | Yankees | Won | Wrong |
| Sep 1 | at Reds | 72% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 31 | at Reds | 72% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 30 | at Rays | 30% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 29 | at Rays | 28% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 28 | at Rays | 46% | Rays | Lost | Right |
| Aug 26 | vs Pirates | 57% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 25 | vs Pirates | 53% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 24 | vs Pirates | 44% | Pirates | Lost | Right |
| Aug 23 | vs Twins | 43% | Twins | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 22 | vs Twins | 74% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 21 | vs Twins | 66% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 19 | at Mets | 74% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 18 | at Mets | 33% | Mets | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 17 | at Mets | 26% | Mets | Lost | Right |
| Aug 16 | at Guardians | 66% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 15 | at Guardians | 61% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 14 | at Guardians | 56% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 12 | vs Brewers | 50.0% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Aug 11 | vs Brewers | 48% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 10 | vs Brewers | 49% | Brewers | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 9 | vs Astros | 49% | Astros | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 8 | vs Astros | 48% | Astros | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 7 | vs Astros | 52% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 6 | at Diamondbacks | 49% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 5 | at Diamondbacks | 55% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 4 | at Diamondbacks | 48% | Diamondbacks | Won | Wrong |
| Aug 3 | at Diamondbacks | 51% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Aug 2 | vs Giants | 60% | Padres | No result | |
| Aug 1 | vs Giants | 81% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Jul 31 | vs Giants | 83% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Jul 30 | vs Giants | 78% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 29 | vs Rockies | 61% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Jul 28 | vs Rockies | 64% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Jul 26 | at Marlins | 59% | Padres | Won | Right |
| Jul 25 | at Marlins | 49% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 24 | at Marlins | 39% | Marlins | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 23 | at Braves | 23% | Braves | No result | |
| Jul 22 | at Braves | 45% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Jul 21 | at Braves | 27% | Braves | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 20 | at Braves | 35% | Braves | Lost | Right |
| Jul 19 | at Royals | 47% | Royals | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 18 | at Royals | 42% | Royals | Lost | Right |
| Jul 17 | at Royals | 60% | Padres | Lost | Wrong |
| Jul 12 | vs Blue Jays | 47% | Blue Jays | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 11 | vs Blue Jays | 37% | Blue Jays | Won | Wrong |
| Jul 10 | vs Blue Jays | 48% | Blue Jays | Lost | Right |
| Jul 9 | vs Diamondbacks | 49% | Diamondbacks | No result | |
| Jul 7 | vs Diamondbacks | 44% | Diamondbacks | No result |
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