MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 25, 2026 at Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Diamondbacks vs Padres
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Diamondbacks 11, Padres 4
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Brandon Pfaadt (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Casey Mize: 7.2 IP, 4 ER (4.70 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 7 ER (15.75 ERA). The edge held up.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 1.1 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 5.0 innings (7.20 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 11, 7.3 more than the 3.7 pregame projection.
San Diego Padres scored 4, 1.8 fewer than the 5.8 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Casey Mize, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 15.75 ERA, and Arizona Diamondbacks's offense scored 7.3 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Brandon Pfaadt vs Casey Mize |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.72 | 3.96 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.17 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.1 | 7.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.7% | 13.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.4% | 20.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.6% | 6.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.6% | 36.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.4% | 63.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Brandon Pfaadt a 1-point edge over Casey Mize, driven mainly by expected innings (5.9 vs 5.1) and BB/9 (2.1 vs 2.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.11 against +0.21).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.845 | 0.839 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.364 | 0.363 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.9% | 21.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.747 (+0.026 vs szn) | 0.766 (+0.051 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.63 (+0.080 vs szn) | 5.07 (+0.680 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.326 (+0.009 vs szn) | 0.334 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.8% (+1.4% vs szn) | 20.8% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.326. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-74 | 89-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.11 | +0.21 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.55 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 4.19 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.715 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.694 | 0.719 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 9.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.9/10, Normal | 8.6/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 27.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.86 | 1.98 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.21 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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