MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Padres vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Padres 0, Dodgers 7
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Brock Stewart (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Michael King: 1.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 5 ER (11.25 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 8.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
San Diego Padres scored 0, 5.6 fewer than the 5.6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Michael King vs Brock Stewart |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Role unknown |
| Expected innings | 6 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.03 | 2.55 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.7 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.7% | 14.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.9% | 24.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.9% | 59.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.1% | 40.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Brock Stewart a 4-point edge over Michael King, driven mainly by WHIP (0.97 vs 1.16) and K-BB% (14.9% vs 11.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 and averaging 6.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.27 against +0.22).
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 10-0 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.913 | 0.859 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.393 | 0.376 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.2% | 17.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.770 (+0.054 vs szn) | 0.777 (+0.012 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.96 (+0.568 vs szn) | 5.11 (+0.098 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.336 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.346 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.2% (-1.4% vs szn) | 18.9% (-1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.346 wOBA to 0.336. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.009 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 87-69 | 96-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.22 | +1.27 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.39 | 5.01 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.18 | 3.74 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.765 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.723 | 0.769 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.2/10, Average | 6.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.7 | 32.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.57 | 2.53 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.03 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.6 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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