MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Petco Park · 8:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Diamondbacks vs Padres
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Diamondbacks 7, Padres 10
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won, the side Leo's model favored.
Taylor Clarke (Arizona Diamondbacks) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Walker Buehler actually pitched better tonight: 3.2 IP, 3 ER (7.36 ERA) against 0.2 IP, 1 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 9 earned runs allowed over 7.1 relief innings (11.05 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 5.1 innings (5.06 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the San Diego Padres pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 7, 1.6 more than the 5.4 pregame projection.
San Diego Padres scored 10, 4 more than the 6 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Taylor Clarke vs Walker Buehler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 0% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.86 | 4.53 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 5.6 | 7.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.0% | 20.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.0% | 8.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.8% | 51.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.2% | 48.2% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Taylor Clarke a 17-point edge over Walker Buehler, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.7 vs 3.3) and WHIP (0.97 vs 1.33).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.09 against +0.22).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.860 | 0.827 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.370 | 0.359 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 20.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.752 (+0.031 vs szn) | 0.779 (+0.062 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.81 (+0.250 vs szn) | 5.33 (+0.905 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.329 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.339 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% (+1.6% vs szn) | 20.7% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.339 wOBA to 0.329. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 86-74 | 89-71 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.09 | +0.22 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.57 | 4.43 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.48 | 4.20 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.715 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.697 | Not available |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.9/10, Normal | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.6/10, Effective | 6.0/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.6/10, Normal | 9.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.0 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.86 | 2.86 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.05 | 1.20 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.