MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Coors Field · 8:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Padres vs Rockies
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 9, Rockies 3
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won, the side Leo's model favored.
Robbie Ray (San Diego Padres), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Mason Adams: 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 6 ER (12.46 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.2 innings (5.79 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
San Diego Padres scored 9, 2.6 more than the 6.4 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Robbie Ray vs Mason Adams |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 37% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 57 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.57 | 3.72 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | 1.50 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 10.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.7% | 14.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.0% | 26.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.3% | 12.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.7% | 46.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.3% | 53.3% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Robbie Ray the edge over the Colorado Rockies pitching plan (31 points on Leo's pitcher score). Mason Adams is projected for only 4 innings, with the Colorado Rockies bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Robbie Ray's own line against the Colorado Rockies blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Colorado Rockies, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Mason Adams (about 4 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 6.28 rather than Mason Adams's own 3.72. Whole-game, that is 4.64 for the San Diego Padres against 6.28 on the other side, so the blended read leans San Diego Padres.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.15 against -1.12).
| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.804 | 0.807 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.348 | 0.350 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.1% | 22.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.745 (+0.034 vs szn) | 0.735 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.59 (+0.257 vs szn) | 4.25 (-0.454 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.327 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.325 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.4% (-1.1% vs szn) | 23.6% (+0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.325. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 82-69 | 56-95 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.15 | -1.12 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.34 | 4.70 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.18 | 5.82 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.743 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.711 | 0.714 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.8/10, Below average | 1.5/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 9.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 29.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.12 | 9.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.36 | 2.00 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.