MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 17, 2026 at Coors Field · 3:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: San Diego Padres moneyline
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Diego Padres remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 9.41, pitching plan 29.33, offense 28.04. Leo projects 73.8% against a 64.2% no-vig market number, a 9.6% model edge at -189. San Diego Padres owns the starting pitcher edge by 21 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. San Diego Padres's pen efficiency: Struggling (2.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%. Lineup check: San Diego Padres is swinging a hot bat (+0.101 OPS); Colorado Rockies is a touch above its season form (+0.035 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Padres 9, Rockies 2
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won, the side Leo's model favored.
Michael King (San Diego Padres), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tanner Gordon: 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 7 ER (21.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 6.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Michael King vs Tanner Gordon |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 20% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 46 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.03 | 6.01 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.7% | 14.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.9% | 18.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.9% | 37.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.1% | 62.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Michael King a 26-point edge over Tanner Gordon, driven mainly by ERA (3.03 vs 6.01) and WHIP (1.16 vs 1.55).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.20 against -1.16).
| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 9-1 | 1-9 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.812 | 0.777 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.353 | 0.339 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.7% | 23.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.766 (+0.051 vs szn) | 0.741 |
| Runs per game | 4.89 (+0.523 vs szn) | 4.14 (-0.543 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.335 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.327 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.6% (-0.9% vs szn) | 23.9% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.335 wOBA to 0.327. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 83-69 | 56-96 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.20 | -1.16 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.37 | 4.69 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.17 | 5.84 |
| Season OPS | 0.711 | 0.742 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 7.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.7/10, Struggling | 1.6/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.6/10, Tired | 8.9/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 31.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 7.17 | 8.81 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.64 | 1.89 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.4 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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