MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at American Family Field · 4:00 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 8.18, pitching plan 40, offense 16.42. Leo projects 71.4% against a 55.1% no-vig market number, a 16.2% model edge at -129. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is in a cold stretch (-0.067 OPS); San Diego Padres is a touch above its season form (+0.032 OPS). Recent form leans against this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Padres 3, Brewers 4
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 61.3 points — the team-strength model favored Milwaukee Brewers, the run-projection model favored San Diego Padres. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Michael King: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
San Diego Padres scored 3, 3.9 fewer than the 6.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:00 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Michael King vs Logan Henderson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 61°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 83 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.21 | 2.47 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 0.84 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.7 | 10.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 24.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.0% | 29.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 36.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.0% | 63.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Logan Henderson a 12-point edge over Michael King, driven mainly by K-BB% (24.5% vs 11.8%) and BB/9 (1.7 vs 3.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.25).
| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.749 | 0.677 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.7% | 29.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.819 (+0.102 vs szn) | 0.779 (+0.035 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.82 (+1.361 vs szn) | 6.05 (+0.912 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.356 (+0.039 vs szn) | 0.343 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.0% (-1.5% vs szn) | 25.2% (+3.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.356 wOBA to 0.343. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.039 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 25.2% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 91-71 | 103-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | +1.32 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.20 | 3.81 |
| Season OPS | 0.717 | 0.744 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.722 | 0.759 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 16.0 | 8.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.25 | 4.15 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.06 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 7.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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