MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Petco Park · 4:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Nationals vs Padres
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Nationals 2, Padres 9
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won, the side Leo's model favored.
Walker Buehler (San Diego Padres), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jackson Kent: 2.1 IP, 2 ER (7.71 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 5 ER (15.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Washington Nationals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 5.0 innings (7.20 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 6.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
San Diego Padres scored 9, 2.8 more than the 6.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jackson Kent vs Walker Buehler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 3% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 28 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.59 | 4.61 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.83 | 1.36 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 2.3% | 11.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 15.5% | 9.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 6.6 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.6% | 51.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.4% | 48.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Walker Buehler a 30-point edge over Jackson Kent, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.4 vs 6.6) and WHIP (1.36 vs 1.83).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.00 against +0.12).
| Metric | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 0-10 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.720 | 0.627 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.315 | 0.278 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.1% | 20.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.677 (-0.074 vs szn) | 0.723 (+0.020 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.04 (-1.072 vs szn) | 4.26 (+0.020 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.300 (-0.030 vs szn) | 0.319 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.5% (+1.6% vs szn) | 20.8% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.300. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-80 | 77-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.11 | 4.24 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.11 | 4.12 |
| Season OPS | 0.752 | 0.699 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.738 | 0.685 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 1.5/10, Struggling | 6.3/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.4/10, High risk | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.7 | 26.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 9.55 | 2.77 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.98 | 1.00 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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