MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Padres vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 4, Dodgers 2
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Nick Pivetta (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tyler Glasnow: 4.2 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.1 IP, 3 ER (4.26 ERA). The edge held up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 2.2 innings (3.38 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 2, 2.9 fewer than the 4.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Los Angeles Dodgers's offense scored 2.9 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Pivetta vs Tyler Glasnow |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 74 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.30 | 3.46 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 23.3% | 24.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.2% | 33.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.8% | 8.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 43.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.6% | 56.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Tyler Glasnow a 1-point edge over Nick Pivetta, driven mainly by expected innings (5.6 vs 4.3) and K/9 (11.6 vs 10.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.22 against +0.25).
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.890 | 0.874 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.384 | 0.382 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 18.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.756 (+0.041 vs szn) | 0.773 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.530 vs szn) | 4.89 (-0.076 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.330 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.344 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.0% (-0.6% vs szn) | 19.4% (-0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.344 wOBA to 0.330. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-70 | 97-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | +1.22 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.40 | 4.97 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.14 | 3.75 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.765 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 20.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.721 | 0.768 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.6/10, Tired | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 7.7/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 6.7/10, Tired | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 34.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.23 | 0.76 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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