MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at American Family Field · 8:30 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Padres vs Brewers
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 2, Brewers 3
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 63.1 points — the team-strength model favored Milwaukee Brewers, the run-projection model favored San Diego Padres. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Robbie Ray: 4.0 IP, 2 ER (4.50 ERA) against 2.2 IP, 2 ER (6.75 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.1 relief innings (1.69 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 5.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
San Diego Padres scored 2, 4.9 fewer than the 6.9 pregame projection.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 3, 2.5 fewer than the 5.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, October 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:30 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 57°F, 1% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 85 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.59 | 1.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | 0.80 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 13.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.0% | 31.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.9% | 37.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.0% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.6% | 47.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.4% | 52.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Jacob Misiorowski a 22-point edge over Robbie Ray, driven mainly by K-BB% (31.3% vs 8.0%) and K/9 (13.0 vs 7.6).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.25).
| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.772 | 0.682 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.340 | 0.306 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 28.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.819 (+0.102 vs szn) | 0.765 (+0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.82 (+1.361 vs szn) | 5.82 (+0.682 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.356 (+0.039 vs szn) | 0.337 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.0% (-1.5% vs szn) | 25.4% (+3.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.356 wOBA to 0.337. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.039 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 91-71 | 103-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | +1.32 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.20 | 3.81 |
| Season OPS | 0.717 | 0.744 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.722 | 0.706 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.6/10, Normal | 4.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.4/10, Average | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.4/10, Normal | 4.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 16.0 | 9.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.38 | 3.72 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.38 | 0.52 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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