MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Oracle Park · 10:15 PM ET
Leo prediction: San Francisco Giants moneyline
The case for San Francisco Giants
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Francisco Giants remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 6.05, pitching plan 33.33, offense 30.23. Leo projects 67.1% against a 41.1% no-vig market number, a 26.0% model edge at +136. San Francisco Giants owns the starting pitcher edge by 11 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. San Francisco Giants's pen efficiency: Average (4.5/10). Lineup check: San Francisco Giants is near its season form (+0.016 OPS); San Diego Padres is near its season form (-0.010 OPS).
Final result
Padres 7, Giants 5
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Anthony Molina (San Francisco Giants) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Robbie Ray actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 5 ER (9.00 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 7 ER (21.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 6.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
San Diego Padres scored 7, 2.9 more than the 4.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Anthony Molina, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 21.00 ERA, and the San Diego Padres bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Robbie Ray vs Anthony Molina |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 1% precipitation chance, 12 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 64 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.39 | 2.79 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.8% | 16.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.1% | 4.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.6 | 1.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.1% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.9% | 50.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Anthony Molina a 11-point edge over Robbie Ray, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.4 vs 4.6) and WHIP (0.88 vs 1.34).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.13 against -0.50).
| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.693 | 0.732 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.305 | 0.323 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 22.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (+0.009 vs szn) | 0.719 |
| Runs per game | 4.15 (-0.105 vs szn) | 4.64 (+0.440 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.315 | 0.318 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.0% (-0.7% vs szn) | 23.0% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Giants have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.315.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 78-68 | 62-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.13 | -0.50 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.26 | 4.20 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.13 | 4.70 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.674 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.3/10, High risk | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.4/10, Effective | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.7 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.57 | 4.50 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.77 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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