MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at Petco Park · 10:00 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Brewers vs Padres
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Brewers 3, Padres 1
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 52.2 points — the team-strength model favored Milwaukee Brewers, the run-projection model favored San Diego Padres. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Robert Gasser (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Walker Buehler: 4.0 IP, 1 ER (2.25 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 1 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 5.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 3, 1.8 fewer than the 4.8 pregame projection.
San Diego Padres scored 1, 6.5 fewer than the 7.5 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, October 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Robert Gasser vs Walker Buehler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.87 | 4.63 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.19 | 1.35 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.7% | 11.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.2% | 20.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.6% | 8.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.7% | 52.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.3% | 47.7% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Robert Gasser a 10-point edge over Walker Buehler, driven mainly by WHIP (1.19 vs 1.35) and K-BB% (14.7% vs 11.4%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.32 against +0.25).
| Metric | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.727 | 0.687 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.324 | 0.307 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.0% | 23.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.777 (+0.033 vs szn) | 0.844 (+0.127 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.89 (+0.753 vs szn) | 6.32 (+1.859 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.341 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.367 (+0.050 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.4% (+3.4% vs szn) | 19.9% (-1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.367 wOBA to 0.341. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.050 wOBA). Brewers are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 103-59 | 91-71 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.32 | +0.25 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.14 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.81 | 4.20 |
| Season OPS | 0.744 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.759 | 0.706 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.4/10, Effective | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.9/10, Normal | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 14.0 | 19.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.64 | 1.86 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.14 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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