MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Oracle Park · 7:20 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Padres vs Giants
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 6, Giants 4
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 36.5 points — the team-strength model favored San Diego Padres, the run-projection model favored San Francisco Giants. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Logan Webb: 4.0 IP, 2 ER (4.50 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 5.0 innings (3.60 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
San Diego Padres scored 6, 2.7 more than the 3.3 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 15 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4 | 6 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.3 | 7.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 25.5% | 13.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 31.9% | 19.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.1% | 58.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 61.9% | 41.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Nick Pivetta a 7-point edge over Logan Webb, driven mainly by K/9 (11.3 vs 7.5) and K-BB% (25.5% vs 13.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.15 against -0.51).
| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.755 | 0.740 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.326 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.6% | 21.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.727 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.730 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.33 (+0.045 vs szn) | 4.79 (+0.580 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.322 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.8% (-0.8% vs szn) | 23.0% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Giants have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.321.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 80-68 | 62-87 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.15 | -0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.29 | 4.21 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.14 | 4.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.706 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.710 | 0.734 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.2/10, High risk | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 5.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.6/10, Tired | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.13 | 2.49 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.87 | 1.38 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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