MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for San Diego Padres
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 73.4% model win probability and 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 73.4% against a 61.2% no-vig market number, a 12.2% model edge at -167. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 19 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.8/10). Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is swinging a hot bat (+0.121 OPS); San Diego Padres is swinging a hot bat (+0.171 OPS).
Final result
Padres 5, Dodgers 1
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Robbie Ray actually pitched better tonight: 3.1 IP, 1 ER (2.70 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 5.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 1, 5.1 fewer than the 6.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Los Angeles Dodgers's offense scored 5.1 fewer runs than projected, and the San Diego Padres bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 5.2 innings), unflagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Robbie Ray vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 6⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 63 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.60 | 2.51 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.33 | 0.87 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.0% | 20.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.1% | 26.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.1% | 6.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 53.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 60.2% | 46.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 19-point edge over Robbie Ray, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.1 vs 4.6) and K-BB% (20.1% vs 8.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.24 against +0.24).
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.887 | 0.886 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.382 | 0.387 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.2% | 17.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.757 (+0.041 vs szn) | 0.783 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.85 (+0.453 vs szn) | 5.00 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.331 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.348 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.2% (-1.3% vs szn) | 19.0% (-1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.348 wOBA to 0.331. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 87-70 | 97-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.24 | +1.24 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.40 | 4.99 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.16 | 3.75 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.765 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 20.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.721 | 0.758 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.3/10, Tired | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.7/10, Effective | 6.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 8.6/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 39.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.54 | 2.08 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.20 | 0.95 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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