MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at Petco Park · 4:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.8/10: conviction 1.33, pitching plan 33.33, offense 33.77. Leo projects 57.7% against a 48.4% no-vig market number, a 9.2% model edge at +105. The starting pitcher matchup does not create a meaningful separation. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (6.0/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch above its season form (+0.030 OPS); San Diego Padres is in a cold stretch (-0.058 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Yankees 3, Padres 4
How the analysis held up
San Diego Padres won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Michael King (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Gerrit Cole: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 4 ER (5.14 ERA). The edge held up.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 1.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Gerrit Cole, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.14 ERA.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Gerrit Cole vs Michael King |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 90°F, 1% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.41 | 3.00 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.2 | 7.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.1% | 11.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.9% | 21.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.9% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.3% | 49.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.7% | 50.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Gerrit Cole a 3-point edge over Michael King, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.8 vs 3.5) and K-BB% (20.1% vs 11.4%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.82 against +0.06).
| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.748 | 0.641 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.331 | 0.286 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.4% | 21.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.703 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.718 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.43 (-0.089 vs szn) | 4.11 (-0.099 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 | 0.317 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.3% (+1.6% vs szn) | 20.9% (-0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.312. Yankees are striking out at 26.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-61 | 74-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.82 | +0.06 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.52 | 4.21 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.70 | 4.15 |
| Season OPS | 0.718 | 0.699 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.713 | 0.704 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.5/10, Normal | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 6.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.0/10, Normal | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 26.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.20 | 2.73 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.02 | 1.10 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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