NFL 2026 · Week 5

Leo’s Week 5 card

Every game this week: each team’s chance to win, Leo’s projected total, and the two players most likely to score a touchdown. Every number is frozen before kickoff and graded after the game.

Prop calls this season: 269-284 · full record

How to read it: the win chance is how often Leo expects that team to win. It is information, not a pick. Leo’s top touchdown pick in a game scored 47% of the time in 2023 to 2025, so treat these as chances, not promises. Leo’s total is a projection with no over or under call. Nothing here is betting advice.

Thu, Oct 8 · 8:15pm ET · AT&T Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at

Win chance: Cowboys 66%
Leo total: 50.7 points (line 49.5)
Most likely TD: Javonte Williams DAL 55% scored
CeeDee Lamb DAL 45% no TD

Final: TB 24, DAL 16

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 9:30am ET · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles at

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win chance: No pre-game read
Leo total: n/a
Most likely TD: n/a

Final: PHI 17, JAX 19

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears at

Green Bay Packers

Win chance: Bears 58%
Leo total: 45.8 points (line 46.5)
Most likely TD: D'Andre Swift CHI 52% scored
Christian Watson GB 47% scored

Final: CHI 7, GB 31

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals at

Win chance: Bengals 63%
Leo total: 44.8 points (line 44.5)
Most likely TD: Ja'Marr Chase CIN 46% scored
Tee Higgins CIN 36% no TD

Final: CIN 31, MIA 24

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Gillette Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders at

New England Patriots

Win chance: Patriots 64%
Leo total: 42.8 points (line 45.5)
Most likely TD: TreVeyon Henderson NE 39% no TD
Cody White LV 36% no TD

Final: LV 17, NE 45

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Caesars Superdome

Minnesota Vikings at

New Orleans Saints

Win chance: Saints 53%
Leo total: 44.8 points (line 41.5)
Most likely TD: Justin Jefferson MIN 32% scored
Alvin Kamara NO 31% no TD

Final: MIN 23, NO 13

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · MetLife Stadium

Cleveland Browns at

Win chance: Browns 51%
Leo total: 42.9 points (line 38.5)
Most likely TD: Garrett Wilson NYJ 39% scored
Quinshon Judkins CLE 33% no TD

Final: CLE 12, NYJ 17

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Acrisure Stadium

Indianapolis Colts at

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win chance: Steelers 50%
Leo total: 47.1 points (line 41.5)
Most likely TD: Jonathan Taylor IND 70% no TD
Roman Wilson PIT 33% no TD

Final: IND 22, PIT 34

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Nissan Stadium

Houston Texans at

Tennessee Titans

Win chance: Texans 61%
Leo total: 42.5 points (line 37.5)
Most likely TD: Nico Collins HOU 52% no TD
David Montgomery HOU 38% no TD

Final: HOU 26, TEN 3

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00pm ET · Northwest Stadium

New York Giants at

Washington Commanders

Win chance: Commanders 61%
Leo total: 46.9 points (line 41.5)
Most likely TD: Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS 30% scored
Cam Skattebo NYG 29% no TD

Final: NYG 27, WAS 27

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05pm ET · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos at

Los Angeles Chargers

Win chance: Broncos 55%
Leo total: 43.2 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Omarion Hampton LAC 47% no TD
Ladd McConkey LAC 27% no TD

Final: DEN 23, LAC 17

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25pm ET · State Farm Stadium

Detroit Lions at

Arizona Cardinals

Win chance: Lions 65%
Leo total: 53 points (line 55.5)
Most likely TD: Jahmyr Gibbs DET 64% scored
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 61% no TD

Final: DET 45, ARI 21

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25pm ET · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ers at

Seattle Seahawks

Win chance: 49ers 54%
Leo total: 46 points (line 46.5)
Most likely TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 63% scored
Christian McCaffrey SF 52% scored

Final: SF 32, SEA 29

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Baltimore Ravens at

Atlanta Falcons

Win chance: Falcons 54%
Leo total: 48.1 points (line 44.5)
Most likely TD: Derrick Henry BAL 66% scored
Bijan Robinson ATL 49% no TD

Final: BAL 30, ATL 23

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15pm ET · SoFi Stadium

Buffalo Bills at

Los Angeles Rams

Win chance: Rams 50%
Leo total: 50.8 points (line 55.5)
Most likely TD: Davante Adams LA 50% scored
Kyren Williams LA 48% scored

Final: BUF 37, LA 34

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. For entertainment and information only. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET.