NFL 2026 · Week 3

Leo’s Week 3 card

Every game this week: each team’s chance to win, Leo’s projected total, and the two players most likely to score a touchdown. Every number is frozen before kickoff and graded after the game.

Prop calls this season: 269-284 · full record

How to read it: the win chance is how often Leo expects that team to win. It is information, not a pick. Leo’s top touchdown pick in a game scored 47% of the time in 2023 to 2025, so treat these as chances, not promises. Leo’s total is a projection with no over or under call. Nothing here is betting advice.

Thu, Sep 24 · 8:15pm ET · Lambeau Field

Atlanta Falcons at

Green Bay Packers

Win chance: Packers 58%
Leo total: 43.8 points (line 43.5)
Most likely TD: Christian Watson GB 58% scored
Drake London ATL 27% no TD

Final: ATL 35, GB 14

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Highmark Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers at

Win chance: Bills 85%
Leo total: 48.5 points (line 50.5)
Most likely TD: Omarion Hampton LAC 44% no TD
James Cook BUF 41% scored

Final: LAC 16, BUF 24

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Huntington Bank Field

Carolina Panthers at

Cleveland Browns

Win chance: Panthers 58%
Leo total: 46 points (line 41.5)
Most likely TD: Denzel Boston CLE 40% no TD
Jalen Coker CAR 40% no TD

Final: CAR 18, CLE 21

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Ford Field

New York Jets at

Win chance: Lions 75%
Leo total: 50.1 points (line 49.5)
Most likely TD: Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 60% scored
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 49% scored

Final: NYJ 24, DET 31

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston Texans at

Indianapolis Colts

Win chance: Colts 63%
Leo total: 49 points (line 41.5)
Most likely TD: Jonathan Taylor IND 68% no TD
David Montgomery HOU 52% no TD

Final: HOU 17, IND 19

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · EverBank Stadium

New England Patriots at

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win chance: Jaguars 62%
Leo total: 40.8 points (line 46.5)
Most likely TD: TreVeyon Henderson NE 43% no TD
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 31% scored

Final: NE 6, JAX 35

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs at

Win chance: Chiefs 65%
Leo total: 45 points (line 45.5)
Most likely TD: Rashee Rice KC 39% no TD
Kenneth Walker III KC 31% scored

Final: KC 24, MIA 10

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · MetLife Stadium

Tennessee Titans at

New York Giants

Win chance: Giants 55%
Leo total: 44 points (line 37.5)
Most likely TD: Cam Skattebo NYG 41% no TD
Elic Ayomanor TEN 30% no TD

Final: TEN 7, NYG 12

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Acrisure Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals at

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win chance: Bengals 58%
Leo total: 44 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Ja'Marr Chase CIN 44% scored
Chase Brown CIN 35% no TD

Final: CIN 27, PIT 30

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00pm ET · Northwest Stadium

Seattle Seahawks at

Washington Commanders

Win chance: Seahawks 65%
Leo total: 44.6 points (line 40.5)
Most likely TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 64% scored
Stefon Diggs WAS 44% no TD

Final: SEA 31, WAS 33

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05pm ET · Levi's Stadium

Arizona Cardinals at

San Francisco 49ers

Win chance: 49ers 78%
Leo total: 45 points (line 48.5)
Most likely TD: Christian McCaffrey SF 51% scored
Jeremiyah Love ARI 34% scored

Final: ARI 30, SF 36

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05pm ET · Raymond James Stadium

Minnesota Vikings at

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win chance: Buccaneers 52%
Leo total: 43.7 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Justin Jefferson MIN 37% no TD
Emeka Egbuka TB 35% no TD

Final: MIN 23, TB 16

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25pm ET · Maracana Stadium

Baltimore Ravens at

Win chance: Cowboys 51%
Leo total: 51.5 points (line 53.5)
Most likely TD: Derrick Henry BAL 72% scored
CeeDee Lamb DAL 48% no TD

Final: BAL 34, DAL 31

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25pm ET · Caesars Superdome

Las Vegas Raiders at

New Orleans Saints

Win chance: Saints 59%
Leo total: 43.5 points (line 43.5)
Most likely TD: Chris Olave NO 38% no TD
Kendre Miller NO 32% no TD

Final: LV 35, NO 27

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Sep 27 · 8:20pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Rams at

Win chance: Rams 62%
Leo total: 42.7 points (line 43.5)
Most likely TD: Davante Adams LA 55% no TD
Kyren Williams LA 45% no TD

Final: LA 26, DEN 30

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:15pm ET · Soldier Field

Philadelphia Eagles at

Win chance: Bears 54%
Leo total: 47 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: D'Andre Swift CHI 59% no TD
Kyle Monangai CHI 33% no TD

Final: PHI 7, CHI 27

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. For entertainment and information only. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET.