Week 5 · Thursday 20:15

TBTB at DALDAL

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

TB moneyline+400
DAL moneyline-535
SpreadDAL -9.5
Total49.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 8, 5:39 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDAL 66%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total50.7points, both teams
Leo marginDAL by 6.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Dak Prescott DAL QB1 7.337.30.94 247
Jalon Daniels TB QB1 6.423.212 144

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bucky Irving TB RB1 3.814.81.24 66
Javonte Williams DAL RB1 4.515.90.94 63
Kenny Gainwell TB RB2 4.74.11.24 24
Tyler Goodson DAL RB2 4.33.10.92 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR1 11.710.40.94 118
George Pickens DAL WR2 11.37.50.94 83
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR2 8.45.114 47
Emeka Egbuka TB WR1 5.86.614 43
Ted Hurst III TB WR3 8.94.114 41
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR3 5.14.90.94 27
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Fri, Oct 16, 9:39 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

TB Game status

4 out

  • Out Baker MayfieldQB Thumb
  • Out SirVocea DennisLB Ankle / Foot
  • Out Benjamin MorrisonCB Quadricep
  • Out Antoine Winfield Jr.S Rib
DAL Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Drew SheltonT Hamstring
  • Out DeMarvion OvershownLB Hamstring
  • Out Cobie DurantCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Jonathan MingoWR Illness
  • Questionable Tyler SmithG Thumb

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

TB This season DAL
32 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 69
38 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 64
52 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 19
45 Overall 42
QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47 Last season QB 63 · OFF 60 · DEF 27

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TB Per game, this season DAL
1.25Interceptions thrown0.25
0.75Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.25
0.50Fumbles forced1.50
1.25Takeaways1.50
2.25Giveaways0.50
-1Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TB Offense DAL
-0.132EPA per dropback+0.244
-1.7Completion % over expected+3.8
3.0%Interception rate1.3%
8.8%Sack rate taken4.3%
+0.004Rush EPA per carry-0.021
5.3%Explosive play rate5.1%
TB Defense DAL
-0.026EPA allowed per play+0.186
5.57Yards allowed per play6.4
3.2%Sack rate2.4%
1.3%Interception rate forced0.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TB, right is DAL.

TB This season DAL
4Games4
190.8Pass yards/g266.3
106Rush yards/g89.5
3Passing TD8
5Interceptions thrown1
214.3Pass yards allowed/g242.5
78.5Rush yards allowed/g150.3
3Interceptions forced0
TB Last season DAL
220.9Pass yards/g278.5
114.5Rush yards/g125.6
26Passing TD31
11Interceptions thrown12
254.8Pass yards allowed/g265.9
99.1Rush yards allowed/g125.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield361/96 63.5%615205 2 / 26.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving456 2414.31
Kenny Gainwell413 2620

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR14 15/2462.5%154 38.51
Chris Godwin Jr. WR24 16/1888.9%142 35.50
Cade Otton TE4 15/2365.2%157 39.30
DAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB69

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott4105/150 70%1065266.3 8 / 17.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams462 2313.75
Tyler Goodson29 343.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
CeeDee Lamb WR14 37/4680.4%498 124.54
George Pickens WR24 18/2864.3%225 56.30
Jake Ferguson TE4 12/1580%83 20.83

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11
DAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Dak Prescott17404/600 67.3%4552267.8 30 / 107.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Javonte Williams16252 12014.811
Malik Davis1052 2504.82

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
George Pickens WR117 93/13767.9%1429 84.19
CeeDee Lamb WR213 75/11764.1%1077 82.83
Jake Ferguson TE17 82/10280.4%600 35.38

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Javonte Williams (DAL, 55%) and CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 45%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TB Leo’s chance
  1. Emeka Egbuka WR1 26% scored
  2. Ted Hurst III WR3 25% no TD
  3. Bucky Irving RB1 23% scored 2
DAL Leo’s chance
  1. Javonte Williams RB1 55% scored
  2. CeeDee Lamb WR1 45% no TD
  3. George Pickens WR2 20% scored

Final result

TB 24 – 16 DAL

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

TB
Jalon Daniels QB 19/25189 yds1 TD0 INT
Bucky Irving RB 21 car165 yds1 TD2 rec, 10 yds
Sean Tucker RB 5 car18 yds0 TD
Kenny Gainwell RB 4 car18 yds0 TD3 rec, 10 yds
Tez Johnson WR 1/164 yds0 TD
Emeka Egbuka WR 6/938 yds0 TD
Chris Godwin Jr. WR 3/337 yds0 TD
DAL
Dak Prescott QB 24/42316 yds1 TD2 INT
Javonte Williams RB 12 car45 yds1 TD2 rec, 17 yds
Hunter Luepke RB 1 car5 yds0 TD
George Pickens WR 9/13130 yds1 TD
Ryan Flournoy WR 3/490 yds0 TD
KaVontae Turpin WR 2/422 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDAL 66%—TB wonWRONG
Total points50.748.540OVER · WRONG
MarginDAL by 6.1DAL −9.5TB by 8TB +9.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Dak Prescott DAL 272.5247 UNDER 316 69 More attempts (42 vs 37.3 expected) WRONG
Jalon Daniels TB 182.5144 UNDER 189 45 More efficient (7.6 vs 6.4 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bucky Irving TB 52.566 OVER 165 99 More efficient (7.9 vs 3.8 yds/carry) RIGHT
Javonte Williams DAL 66.563 UNDER 45 18 Fewer carries (12 vs 15.9 expected) RIGHT
Kenny Gainwell TB 12.524 OVER 18 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
CeeDee Lamb DAL 85.5118 OVER 9 109 Fewer targets (5 vs 10.4 expected) WRONG
Ryan Flournoy DAL 32.527 UNDER 90 63 More efficient (22.5 vs 5.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
George Pickens DAL 63.583 OVER 130 47 More targets (13 vs 7.5 expected) RIGHT
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 34.547 OVER 37 10 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.1 expected) RIGHT
Emeka Egbuka TB 36.543 OVER 38 5 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.