Week 5 · Sunday 20:20

BALBAL at ATLATL

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open

BAL moneyline+145
ATL moneyline-175
SpreadATL -3.5
Total44.5

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceATL 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total48.1points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB1 8.626.612 226
Tyler Huntley BAL QB1 7241.11 181

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 5.119.80.94 98
Derrick Henry BAL RB1 4.921.20.94 89
Brian Robinson ATL RB2 4.29.50.94 39
Justice Hill BAL RB2 4.43.10.94 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Zay Flowers BAL WR1 15.37.31.13 129
Drake London ATL WR1 12.87.514 101
Rashod Bateman BAL WR2 11.53.31.14 46
Chris Moore BAL WR3 10.32.21.13 29
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 7.63.114 27
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 2.72.814 11
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

BAL Game status

3 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Lamar JacksonQB Ankle
  • Out Cam JurgensC Concussion
  • Out Trey HendricksonLB Finger
  • Questionable Zay FlowersWR Foot
  • Questionable Andrew VorheesG Foot
  • Questionable Marlon HumphreyCB Hamstring / Calf
ATL Game status

1 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Yasir AbdullahLB Hamstring
  • Questionable Jake MatthewsT Groin
  • Questionable Samson EbukamDE Hamstring
  • Questionable Za'Darius SmithDE Concussion / Neck
  • Questionable Divine DeabloLB Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

BAL This season ATL
64 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 31
67 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 45
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 57
56 Overall 51
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45 Last season QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BAL Per game, this season ATL
0.25Interceptions thrown1.50
0.50Interceptions caught0.25
0.25Fumbles lost0.50
1.00Fumbles forced0.75
1.50Takeaways1.00
0.50Giveaways2.00
+1Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BAL Offense ATL
+0.173EPA per dropback-0.093
+5.5Completion % over expected-4.5
1.8%Interception rate3.8%
7.9%Sack rate taken6.0%
+0.049Rush EPA per carry+0.034
7.5%Explosive play rate5.7%
BAL Defense ATL
+0.029EPA allowed per play-0.028
5.53Yards allowed per play5.35
2.8%Sack rate4.1%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BAL, right is ATL.

BAL This season ATL
4Games4
257.5Pass yards/g191.8
153.5Rush yards/g181
6Passing TD3
1Interceptions thrown6
229Pass yards allowed/g276.5
100Rush yards allowed/g48.3
2Interceptions forced1
BAL Last season ATL
192.8Pass yards/g217.8
156.6Rush yards/g125.8
23Passing TD19
11Interceptions thrown8
259Pass yards allowed/g221.9
106.6Rush yards allowed/g126.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson468/96 70.8%967241.8 6 / 110.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry489 3744.27
Justice Hill414 604.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR13 18/2281.8%352 117.32
Rashod Bateman WR24 11/1573.3%171 42.81
Mark Andrews TE4 18/2475%149 37.31
ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.233/45 73.3%479239.5 2 / 110.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson485 4945.84
Brian Robinson444 1944.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR14 20/2580%370 92.50
Jahan Dotson WR24 6/1346.2%95 23.81
Kyle Pitts TE4 5/955.6%67 16.80

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson13192/302 63.6%2549196.1 21 / 78.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry17307 15955.216
Keaton Mitchell1359 3415.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR117 86/11872.9%1211 71.25
DeAndre Hopkins WR217 22/3956.4%330 19.42
Mark Andrews TE17 48/7068.6%422 24.85
ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Derrick Henry (BAL, 66%) and Bijan Robinson (ATL, 49%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BAL Leo’s chance
  1. Derrick Henry RB1 66% scored
  2. Zay Flowers WR1 40% no TD
  3. Chris Moore WR3 24% no TD
ATL Leo’s chance
  1. Bijan Robinson RB1 49% no TD
  2. Brian Robinson RB2 43% no TD
  3. Drake London WR1 22% no TD

Final result

BAL 30 – 23 ATL (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BAL
Tyler Huntley QB 24/32201 yds2 TD0 INT
Derrick Henry RB 24 car102 yds0 TD1 rec, 18 yds
Justice Hill RB 4 car73 yds0 TD2 rec, 5 yds
Zay Flowers WR 1 car13 yds0 TD8 rec, 53 yds
Rashod Bateman WR 5/662 yds0 TD
Zay Flowers WR 8/953 yds0 TD
Mark Andrews TE 4/628 yds0 TD
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB 19/32240 yds1 TD0 INT
Bijan Robinson RB 17 car86 yds0 TD4 rec, 32 yds
Brian Robinson RB 7 car16 yds0 TD
Drake London WR 7/11118 yds0 TD
Jahan Dotson WR 2/454 yds0 TD
Kyle Pitts TE 5/642 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerATL 54%—BAL wonNO PICK
Total points48.143.553OVER · RIGHT
MarginBAL by 1ATL −3BAL by 7BAL +3 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Huntley BAL 174.5181 no side 201 20 More attempts (32 vs 24 expected) NO LEAN
Michael Penix Jr. ATL 219.5226 no side 240 14 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Justice Hill BAL 11.513 OVER 73 60 More efficient (18.3 vs 4.4 yds/carry) RIGHT
Brian Robinson ATL 35.539 OVER 16 23 Less efficient (2.3 vs 4.2 yds/carry) WRONG
Derrick Henry BAL 79.589 OVER 102 13 Less efficient (4.3 vs 4.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Bijan Robinson ATL 86.598 OVER 86 12 Fewer carries (17 vs 19.8 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Zay Flowers BAL 67.5129 OVER 53 76 Less efficient (5.9 vs 15.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jahan Dotson ATL 20.527 OVER 54 27 More efficient (13.5 vs 7.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Drake London ATL 80.5101 OVER 118 17 More targets (11 vs 7.5 expected) RIGHT
Rashod Bateman BAL 17.546 OVER 62 16 More targets (6 vs 3.3 expected) RIGHT
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 7.511 OVER 0 11 WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.