Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

HOUHOU at TENTEN

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · Division game

HOU moneyline-310
TEN moneyline+250
SpreadHOU -6.5
Total37.5

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceHOU 61%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.5points, both teams
Leo marginHOU by 4.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 7.435.814 251
Cam Ward TEN QB1 6311.14 191

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Tony Pollard TEN RB1 4.413.60.94 54
David Montgomery HOU RB1 411.914 50
Woody Marks HOU RB2 3.88.214 33
Tyjae Spears TEN RB2 4.44.10.94 17

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Nico Collins HOU WR1 10.88.812 96
Carnell Tate TEN WR1 7.88.51.14 75
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 12.93.81.14 55
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR2 6.37.21.14 52
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR2 6.95.214 39
Jared Wayne HOU WR3 7.92.713 25
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

HOU Game status

1 out · 6 questionable

  • Out Tank DellWR Knee
  • Questionable Aireontae ErseryT Illness
  • Questionable Blake FisherT Illness
  • Questionable Braden SmithT Foot
  • Questionable Ed IngramG Illness
  • Questionable Kayden McDonaldDT Ankle
  • Questionable M.J. StewartS Knee
TEN Game status

1 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Amani HookerS Concussion
  • Questionable Carnell TateWR Back
  • Questionable David Martin-RobinsonTE Hamstring
  • Questionable Joshua WilliamsCB Pectoral

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

HOU This season TEN
48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 35
49 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 36
63 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38
56 Overall 37
QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75 Last season QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

HOU Per game, this season TEN
0.00Interceptions thrown0.50
0.25Interceptions caught0.50
0.50Fumbles lost0.25
0.75Fumbles forced0.25
1.00Takeaways0.75
0.50Giveaways0.75
+0.5Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

HOU Offense TEN
+0.018EPA per dropback-0.160
-1.1Completion % over expected-0.3
1.1%Interception rate1.5%
6.3%Sack rate taken6.9%
-0.103Rush EPA per carry-0.042
6.3%Explosive play rate5.1%
HOU Defense TEN
-0.055EPA allowed per play+0.071
5.36Yards allowed per play5.76
5.3%Sack rate3.7%
1.1%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is HOU, right is TEN.

HOU This season TEN
4Games4
285.3Pass yards/g181.5
79Rush yards/g89
5Passing TD3
0Interceptions thrown2
277.8Pass yards allowed/g220.5
83.8Rush yards allowed/g122.8
1Interceptions forced2
HOU Last season TEN
232.5Pass yards/g190.6
108.6Rush yards/g93.5
26Passing TD15
14Interceptions thrown8
200.7Pass yards allowed/g248.3
92.7Rush yards allowed/g114.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud493/151 61.6%1141285.3 5 / 07.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
David Montgomery447 1272.72
Woody Marks428 873.12

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Hutchinson WR14 12/2646.2%166 41.50
Nico Collins WR22 14/1877.8%193 96.53
Dalton Schultz TE4 21/2777.8%214 53.50
TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB35

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward475/119 63%726181.5 3 / 26.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard454 2214.11
Tyjae Spears415 654.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Carnell Tate WR14 22/3268.8%268 670
Wan'Dale Robinson WR24 16/2369.6%123 30.82
Gunnar Helm TE4 9/1275%60 150

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443
TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward17323/540 59.8%3169186.4 15 / 75.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17242 10824.55
Tyjae Spears1372 2833.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Elic Ayomanor WR116 41/8946.1%515 32.24
Chimere Dike WR217 48/7464.9%423 24.94
Chig Okonkwo TE17 56/7970.9%560 32.92

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Nico Collins (HOU, 52%) and David Montgomery (HOU, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
HOU Leo’s chance
  1. Nico Collins WR1 52% no TD
  2. David Montgomery RB1 38% no TD
  3. Woody Marks RB2 30% no TD
TEN Leo’s chance
  1. Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 34% no TD
  2. Elic Ayomanor WR3 24% no TD
  3. Tony Pollard RB1 22% no TD

Final result

HOU 26 – 3 TEN

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

HOU
C.J. Stroud QB 26/34261 yds1 TD0 INT
Woody Marks RB 15 car62 yds0 TD4 rec, 23 yds
David Montgomery RB 5 car11 yds0 TD
Jaylin Noel WR 1 car1 yds0 TD5 rec, 41 yds
Xavier Hutchinson WR 4/565 yds0 TD
Nico Collins WR 5/756 yds0 TD
Jaylin Noel WR 5/541 yds1 TD
TEN
Cam Ward QB 23/36170 yds0 TD1 INT
Tony Pollard RB 14 car52 yds0 TD
Tyjae Spears RB 2 car0 yds0 TD9 rec, 28 yds
Kalel Mullings RB 1 car3 yds0 TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR 6/753 yds0 TD
Calvin Ridley WR 2/333 yds0 TD
Tyjae Spears RB 9/928 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerHOU 61%—HOU wonRIGHT
Total points42.537.529OVER · WRONG
MarginHOU by 4.6HOU −6.5HOU by 23TEN +6.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Cam Ward TEN 190.5191 no side 170 21 Less efficient (4.7 vs 6 yds/att) NO LEAN
C.J. Stroud HOU 239.5251 no side 261 10 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
David Montgomery HOU 43.550 OVER 11 39 Fewer carries (5 vs 11.9 expected) WRONG
Woody Marks HOU 35.533 UNDER 62 29 More carries (15 vs 8.2 expected) WRONG
Tyjae Spears TEN —17 no side 0 17 Fewer carries (2 vs 4.1 expected)
Tony Pollard TEN 50.554 OVER 52 2 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Carnell Tate TEN 46.575 OVER 6 69 Less efficient (1.2 vs 7.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Nico Collins HOU 77.596 OVER 56 40 Less efficient (8 vs 10.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Elic Ayomanor TEN 16.555 OVER 17 38 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.8 expected) RIGHT
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 14.539 OVER 65 26 More efficient (13 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jared Wayne HOU —25 no side 0 25
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 32.552 OVER 53 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.