Week 5 · Sunday 16:25

SFSF at SEASEA

Lumen Field · outdoors · Division game

SF moneyline+140
SEA moneyline-166
SpreadSEA -3
Total46.5

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceSF 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46points, both teams
Leo marginSEA by 3.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Brock Purdy SF QB1 8.529.40.94 204
Drew Lock SEA QB1 7.827.712 204

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Christian McCaffrey SF RB1 413.614 53
Emanuel Wilson SEA RB1 4.112.30.94 48
Kaelon Black SF RB2 4.27.714 33
George Holani SEA RB2 44.90.94 20

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR1 11.810.114 120
Mike Evans SF WR1 9.66.60.94 58
Cooper Kupp SEA WR3 9.43.614 37
Jordan Watkins SF WR3 20.61.80.91 35
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF WR2 5.15.70.94 28
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR2 5.64.114 26
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

SF Game status

4 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Kyle JuszczykFB Knee
  • Out Nick BosaDE Knee / Calf
  • Out James Thompson Jr.DT Ankle
  • Out Marques SigleS Ankle
  • Questionable Mykel WilliamsDE Knee
  • Questionable Upton StoutCB Shoulder
SEA Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Zach CharbonnetRB Knee
  • Out Chazz SurrattLB Calf
  • Out Julian NealCB Hamstring
  • Questionable George HolaniRB Ribs / Knee
  • Questionable Irvin CharlesWR Knee

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

SF This season SEA
80 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 65
73 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 55
39 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 76
56 Overall 66
QB 63 · OFF 56 · DEF 35 Last season QB 62 · OFF 58 · DEF 69

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

SF Per game, this season SEA
0.25Interceptions thrown0.75
0.25Interceptions caught1.50
0.00Fumbles lost0.50
1.50Fumbles forced0.25
1.75Takeaways1.75
0.25Giveaways1.25
+1.5Net turnover margin+0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

SF Offense SEA
+0.339EPA per dropback+0.158
+4.6Completion % over expected+4.6
1.9%Interception rate2.6%
2.2%Sack rate taken5.1%
-0.010Rush EPA per carry-0.122
6.0%Explosive play rate6.6%
SF Defense SEA
+0.053EPA allowed per play-0.129
5.28Yards allowed per play4.65
2.2%Sack rate4.5%
0.5%Interception rate forced2.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is SF, right is SEA.

SF This season SEA
4Games4
251.8Pass yards/g249
137.3Rush yards/g110.3
11Passing TD10
1Interceptions thrown3
214.8Pass yards allowed/g161.3
99.8Rush yards allowed/g102
1Interceptions forced6
SF Last season SEA
250.2Pass yards/g236.8
105.3Rush yards/g124.4
36Passing TD30
19Interceptions thrown15
231.7Pass yards allowed/g221.6
113.1Rush yards allowed/g93.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

SF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB80

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy479/113 69.9%1007251.8 11 / 18.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey450 2184.44
Kaelon Black431 1203.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mike Evans WR14 17/2470.8%213 53.32
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR24 14/1782.4%185 46.33
George Kittle TE4 16/2272.7%244 614
SEA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold345/69 65.2%560186.7 6 / 38.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Emanuel Wilson453 1903.61
Jadarian Price328 1194.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR14 32/4276.2%481 120.36
Rashid Shaheed WR24 7/1546.7%73 18.30
AJ Barner TE4 9/1560%102 25.50

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

SF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB63

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Brock Purdy11230/342 67.3%2569233.5 22 / 137.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Christian McCaffrey19337 12853.810
Brian Robinson1995 4044.32

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jauan Jennings WR117 58/9859.2%711 41.89
Ricky Pearsall WR210 36/5565.5%528 52.80
George Kittle TE12 58/7181.7%634 52.87
SEA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB62

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Sam Darnold20379/568 66.7%4720236 30 / 148.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III20286 13404.79
Zach Charbonnet17189 750412

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR120 136/18972%1992 99.612
Cooper Kupp WR219 62/9366.7%750 39.53
AJ Barner TE20 58/7577.3%586 29.37

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, 63%) and Christian McCaffrey (SF, 52%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
SF Leo’s chance
  1. Christian McCaffrey RB1 52% scored
  2. Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 36% no TD
  3. Mike Evans WR1 30% scored
SEA Leo’s chance
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 63% scored
  2. Emanuel Wilson RB1 20% scored
  3. Cooper Kupp WR3 19% no TD

Final result

SF 32 – 29 SEA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

SF
Brock Purdy QB 19/29189 yds2 TD1 INT
Christian McCaffrey RB 11 car68 yds1 TD3 rec, 15 yds
Kaelon Black RB 6 car16 yds0 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR 2 car4 yds0 TD2 rec, 21 yds
Mike Evans WR 7/10113 yds1 TD
George Kittle TE 5/624 yds0 TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR 2/321 yds0 TD
SEA
Sam Darnold QB 18/29195 yds1 TD2 INT
Emanuel Wilson RB 20 car61 yds1 TD2 rec, 11 yds
George Holani RB 4 car7 yds0 TD4 rec, 24 yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 1 car16 yds0 TD5 rec, 102 yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 5/8102 yds1 TD
George Holani RB 4/424 yds0 TD
Rashid Shaheed WR 2/423 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerSF 54%—SF wonNO PICK
Total points4646.561no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginSEA by 3.2SEA −3SF by 3no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Brock Purdy SF 228.5204 UNDER 189 15 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kaelon Black SF 14.533 OVER 16 17 Less efficient (2.7 vs 4.2 yds/carry) RIGHT
Christian McCaffrey SF 49.553 OVER 68 15 More efficient (6.2 vs 4 yds/carry) RIGHT
Emanuel Wilson SEA 65.548 UNDER 61 13 More carries (20 vs 12.3 expected) RIGHT
George Holani SEA 20.520 no side 7 13 Less efficient (1.8 vs 4 yds/carry) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Mike Evans SF 50.558 OVER 113 55 More targets (10 vs 6.6 expected) RIGHT
Cooper Kupp SEA 24.537 OVER 15 22 Less efficient (5 vs 9.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 95.5120 OVER 102 18 Fewer targets (8 vs 10.1 expected) RIGHT
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF 34.528 UNDER 21 7 On target RIGHT
Rashid Shaheed SEA 20.526 OVER 23 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.