Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

CINCIN at MIAMIA

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors

CIN moneyline-355
MIA moneyline+280
SpreadCIN -7
Total44.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCIN 63%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.8points, both teams
Leo marginCIN by 5.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Joe Burrow CIN QB1 7.337.914 279
Malik Willis MIA QB1 727.71.14 205

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chase Brown CIN RB1 4.314.514 61
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB1 4.47.913 34
Samaje Perine CIN RB2 4.43.714 17
Jaylen Wright MIA RB2 3.93.913 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tee Higgins CIN WR1 10.38.414 93
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR2 7.9914 77
Malik Washington MIA WR1 8.25.71.14 55
Mitchell Tinsley CIN WR3 6.43.711 28
Chris Bell MIA WR3 4.13.31.14 19
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA WR2 0.53.31.13 5
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CIN Game status

1 out · 5 questionable

  • Out Kyle DuggerS Quadricep
  • Questionable Colbie YoungWR Knee
  • Questionable Ja'Marr ChaseWR Concussion
  • Questionable Tee HigginsWR Groin / Neck
  • Questionable Swayze BozemanLB Groin
  • Questionable Bryan CookS Ankle
MIA Game status

4 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Caleb DouglasWR Ankle
  • Out Justin JolyTE Concussion
  • Out Rob Beal Jr.DE Hamstring
  • Out Reese TaylorCB Quadricep
  • Questionable Jaylen WrightRB Foot
  • Questionable Kenneth GrantDT Toe
  • Questionable Jackson WoodardLB Ankle
  • Questionable Storm DuckCB Knee

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CIN This season MIA
55 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
52 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 39
43 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 36
48 Overall 38
QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34 Last season QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CIN Per game, this season MIA
0.75Interceptions thrown0.50
0.25Interceptions caught0.75
0.25Fumbles lost0.75
1.25Fumbles forced0.25
1.50Takeaways1.00
1.00Giveaways1.25
+0.5Net turnover margin-0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CIN Offense MIA
+0.067EPA per dropback-0.072
+3.4Completion % over expected-3.6
2.3%Interception rate2.8%
5.4%Sack rate taken8.5%
-0.042Rush EPA per carry-0.057
5.4%Explosive play rate5.7%
CIN Defense MIA
+0.053EPA allowed per play+0.074
6.24Yards allowed per play5.92
4.5%Sack rate2.8%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CIN, right is MIA.

CIN This season MIA
4Games4
292.8Pass yards/g178
74.3Rush yards/g104
7Passing TD1
3Interceptions thrown2
272Pass yards allowed/g235
99.5Rush yards allowed/g109
1Interceptions forced3
CIN Last season MIA
249.6Pass yards/g195.4
93.6Rush yards/g120.2
36Passing TD23
17Interceptions thrown18
245.6Pass yards allowed/g230.6
147.1Rush yards allowed/g132.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB55

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow4112/157 71.3%1171292.8 7 / 37.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown458 2073.61
Samaje Perine413 423.20

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tee Higgins WR14 25/3964.1%401 100.31
Ja'Marr Chase WR24 21/2875%212 533
Mike Gesicki TE3 11/1573.3%155 51.73
MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Malik Willis458/103 56.3%712178 1 / 26.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane334 1273.70
Ollie Gordon II329 1485.12

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Washington WR14 17/2860.7%219 54.80
Chris Bell WR24 5/1338.5%92 230
Greg Dulcich TE3 9/1275%90 300

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow8173/259 66.8%1809226.1 17 / 57

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown17232 10194.46
Samaje Perine1584 3824.53

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR116 125/18567.6%1412 88.38
Tee Higgins WR215 59/9860.2%846 56.411
Mike Gesicki TE12 28/4266.7%307 25.62
MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tua Tagovailoa14260/384 67.7%2660190 20 / 156.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane16238 13505.78
Ollie Gordon II1770 1992.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR116 64/10064%910 56.96
Malik Washington WR217 46/6570.8%317 18.63
Darren Waller TE9 24/3470.6%283 31.46

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, 46%) and Tee Higgins (CIN, 36%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CIN Leo’s chance
  1. Ja'Marr Chase WR2 46% scored
  2. Tee Higgins WR1 36% no TD
  3. Chase Brown RB1 26% no TD
MIA Leo’s chance
  1. Ollie Gordon II RB1 33% scored
  2. Kevin Coleman Jr. WR2 17% scored
  3. Chris Bell WR3 15% no TD

Final result

CIN 31 – 24 MIA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CIN
Joe Burrow QB 23/32190 yds4 TD0 INT
Samaje Perine RB 14 car68 yds0 TD2 rec, 10 yds
Chase Brown RB 13 car39 yds0 TD3 rec, 21 yds
Ja'Marr Chase WR 6/1077 yds1 TD
Erick All TE 3/325 yds0 TD
Tee Higgins WR 2/422 yds0 TD
MIA
Malik Willis QB 15/27137 yds1 TD2 INT
Ollie Gordon II RB 18 car88 yds1 TD
Jaylen Wright RB 6 car11 yds0 TD
Malik Washington WR 1 car18 yds0 TD6 rec, 43 yds
Malik Washington WR 6/843 yds0 TD
Greg Dulcich TE 4/537 yds0 TD
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR 3/730 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCIN 63%—CIN wonRIGHT
Total points44.844.555no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginCIN by 5.9CIN −7CIN by 7MIA +7 · PUSH

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Joe Burrow CIN 258.5279 OVER 190 89 Less efficient (5.9 vs 7.3 yds/att) WRONG
Malik Willis MIA 190.5205 OVER 137 68 Less efficient (5.1 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ollie Gordon II MIA 42.534 UNDER 88 54 More carries (18 vs 7.9 expected) WRONG
Samaje Perine CIN 15.517 OVER 68 51 More carries (14 vs 3.7 expected) RIGHT
Chase Brown CIN 65.561 UNDER 39 22 Less efficient (3 vs 4.3 yds/carry) RIGHT
Jaylen Wright MIA 23.516 UNDER 11 5 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tee Higgins CIN 53.593 OVER 22 71 Fewer targets (4 vs 8.4 expected) WRONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA 18.55 UNDER 30 25 More efficient (4.3 vs 0.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Chris Bell MIA 33.519 UNDER 0 19 Less efficient (0 vs 4.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Malik Washington MIA 46.555 OVER 43 12 Less efficient (5.4 vs 8.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 76.577 no side 77 0 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.