Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

INDIND at PITPIT

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors

IND moneyline+136
PIT moneyline-162
SpreadPIT -3
Total41.5

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chancePIT 50%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total47.1points, both teams
Leo marginIND by 0.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 6.635.91.14 244
Daniel Jones IND QB1 6.532.514 206

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 4.720.814 98
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 4.713.914 68
Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 4.58.912 42
Seth McGowan IND RB2 4.32.914 14

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 7.57.71.14 65
Josh Downs IND WR1 6.66.414 46
Roman Wilson PIT WR2 8.14.31.14 41
Keenan Allen IND WR2 56.813 38
Germie Bernard PIT WR3 83.51.13 33
Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 10.61.614 21
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

IND Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Ashton DulinWR Hamstring
  • Out Will MalloryTE Thumb
  • Out Arden KeyDE Hamstring
  • Out Jaylon CarliesLB Ribs
  • Questionable Darius SlaytonWR Knee
  • Questionable Keenan AllenWR Not injury related - resting player / Groin
  • Questionable Charvarius WardCB Not injury related - resting player / Groin
PIT Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Michael PittmanWR Foot
  • Out Jamel DeanCB Ankle
  • Out DeShon ElliottS Knee
  • Questionable Rico DowdleRB Toe
  • Questionable Jalen RamseyCB Wrist

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

IND This season PIT
41 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 41
48 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 44
43 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 54
46 Overall 49
QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49 Last season QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

IND Per game, this season PIT
1.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.25Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.50
0.50Fumbles forced1.75
0.75Takeaways2.75
2.00Giveaways1.50
-1.25Net turnover margin+1.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

IND Offense PIT
-0.044EPA per dropback-0.057
-0.6Completion % over expected-1.9
2.8%Interception rate2.1%
5.4%Sack rate taken6.7%
+0.096Rush EPA per carry-0.029
4.8%Explosive play rate5.9%
IND Defense PIT
+0.033EPA allowed per play+0.020
5.99Yards allowed per play5.84
3.5%Sack rate4.4%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is IND, right is PIT.

IND This season PIT
4Games4
188.5Pass yards/g249.8
109.5Rush yards/g94.8
3Passing TD7
4Interceptions thrown4
276.3Pass yards allowed/g225.3
131Rush yards allowed/g112.8
1Interceptions forced4
IND Last season PIT
240.3Pass yards/g210
118.1Rush yards/g101.1
25Passing TD26
14Interceptions thrown10
262.5Pass yards allowed/g260.4
101.9Rush yards allowed/g115.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB41

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones484/132 63.6%754188.5 3 / 45.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor486 3534.16
Seth McGowan412 453.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR14 17/2860.7%202 50.50
Keenan Allen WR23 13/2065%100 33.31
Tyler Warren TE4 23/2785.2%130 32.52
PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB41

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers488/153 57.5%999249.8 7 / 46.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren455 3095.60
Rico Dowdle215 372.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR14 16/3348.5%213 53.31
Roman Wilson WR24 14/2458.3%188 472
Pat Freiermuth TE4 14/1973.7%125 31.32

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14
PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 70%) and Roman Wilson (PIT, 33%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
IND Leo’s chance
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB1 70% no TD
  2. Keenan Allen WR2 25% no TD
  3. Seth McGowan RB2 17% no TD
PIT Leo’s chance
  1. Roman Wilson WR2 33% no TD
  2. DK Metcalf WR1 28% no TD
  3. Rico Dowdle RB2 22% no TD

Final result

IND 22 – 34 PIT

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

IND
Daniel Jones QB 24/44267 yds0 TD0 INT
Jonathan Taylor RB 15 car45 yds0 TD3 rec, 37 yds
Seth McGowan RB 5 car16 yds0 TD1 rec, 3 yds
Tyler Warren TE 1 car1 yds1 TD7 rec, 83 yds
Tyler Warren TE 7/983 yds0 TD
Josh Downs WR 3/647 yds0 TD
Keenan Allen WR 5/945 yds0 TD
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB 22/31235 yds3 TD0 INT
Jaylen Warren RB 15 car101 yds1 TD6 rec, 87 yds
DK Metcalf WR 1 car11 yds0 TD3 rec, 12 yds
Pat Freiermuth TE 1 car1 yds0 TD5 rec, 44 yds
Jaylen Warren RB 6/687 yds1 TD
Germie Bernard WR 6/980 yds0 TD
Pat Freiermuth TE 5/744 yds2 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerPIT 50%—PIT wonNO PICK
Total points47.141.556OVER · RIGHT
MarginIND by 0.5PIT −3PIT by 12IND +3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Daniel Jones IND 208.5206 no side 267 61 More attempts (44 vs 32.5 expected) NO LEAN
Aaron Rodgers PIT 223.5244 OVER 235 9 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jonathan Taylor IND 84.598 OVER 45 53 Fewer carries (15 vs 20.8 expected) WRONG
Jaylen Warren PIT 71.568 no side 101 33 More efficient (6.7 vs 4.7 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Seth McGowan IND —14 no side 16 2 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
DK Metcalf PIT 53.565 OVER 12 53 Fewer targets (4 vs 7.7 expected) WRONG
Germie Bernard PIT 20.533 OVER 80 47 More targets (9 vs 3.5 expected) RIGHT
Roman Wilson PIT 41.541 no side 0 41 Fewer targets (1 vs 4.3 expected) NO LEAN
Laquon Treadwell IND 14.521 OVER 34 13 More targets (8 vs 1.6 expected) RIGHT
Keenan Allen IND 29.538 OVER 45 7 On target RIGHT
Josh Downs IND 55.546 UNDER 47 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.