Week 5 · Monday 20:15

BUFBUF at LALA

SoFi Stadium · dome

BUF moneyline+154
LA moneyline-185
SpreadLA -3.5
Total55.5

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 12, 7:18 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLA 50%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total50.8points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 1.4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1 7.538.71.14 309
Josh Allen BUF QB1 8.529.40.94 205

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
James Cook BUF RB1 5.218.10.94 85
Kyren Williams LA RB1 4.813.914 69
Blake Corum LA RB2 4.78.414 41
Ray Davis BUF RB2 4.71.40.93 7

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Puka Nacua LA WR1 9.810.71.12 118
Davante Adams LA WR2 9.69.11.14 99
Keon Coleman BUF WR3 124.40.94 48
Khalil Shakir BUF WR1 6.65.80.94 36
DJ Moore BUF WR2 5.54.80.94 26
Konata Mumpfield LA WR3 5.331.14 21
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Fri, Oct 16, 9:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

BUF Game status

2 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Josh PalmerWR Shoulder
  • Out Ed OliverDE Knee
  • Questionable DJ MooreWR Shoulder
  • Questionable Landon JacksonDE Knee
  • Questionable Dee AlfordCB Ankle
LA Game status

1 questionable

  • Questionable Quentin LakeS Hip

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

BUF This season LA
66 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 58
71 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 61
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 64
59 Overall 63
QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52 Last season QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BUF Per game, this season LA
0.75Interceptions thrown1.50
0.50Interceptions caught0.75
1.00Fumbles lost0.50
1.00Fumbles forced0.75
1.50Takeaways1.50
1.75Giveaways2.00
-0.25Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BUF Offense LA
+0.224EPA per dropback+0.156
+5.2Completion % over expected+0.3
2.3%Interception rate2.4%
7.1%Sack rate taken3.7%
+0.093Rush EPA per carry-0.034
8.1%Explosive play rate7.2%
BUF Defense LA
+0.049EPA allowed per play-0.074
5.63Yards allowed per play4.91
3.6%Sack rate3.5%
1.1%Interception rate forced1.4%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BUF, right is LA.

BUF This season LA
4Games4
259.8Pass yards/g300.5
139Rush yards/g126.8
6Passing TD6
3Interceptions thrown6
274Pass yards allowed/g153.8
116Rush yards allowed/g102
2Interceptions forced3
BUF Last season LA
238.8Pass yards/g282.2
156.6Rush yards/g124.7
33Passing TD52
12Interceptions thrown9
177.9Pass yards allowed/g242.8
133.6Rush yards allowed/g110.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB66

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen479/119 66.4%1039259.8 6 / 38.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook470 42163
Ray Davis32 630

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR14 15/2365.2%176 440
DJ Moore WR24 12/2060%178 44.51
Dalton Kincaid TE4 15/1978.9%270 67.51
LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford499/162 61.1%1189297.3 6 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams454 2945.43
Blake Corum433 1624.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Davante Adams WR14 22/3857.9%390 97.52
Puka Nacua WR22 14/2166.7%199 99.50
Tyler Higbee TE3 15/1978.9%141 471

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77
LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford20454/716 63.4%5643282.2 52 / 97.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams20303 14354.712
Blake Corum20171 8655.16

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR119 153/20873.6%2047 107.712
Davante Adams WR217 71/13951.1%974 57.315
Colby Parkinson TE17 51/7072.9%560 32.99

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Davante Adams (LA, 50%) and Kyren Williams (LA, 48%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BUF Leo’s chance
  1. James Cook RB1 46% scored 2
  2. DJ Moore WR2 22% no TD
  3. Keon Coleman WR3 22% scored
LA Leo’s chance
  1. Davante Adams WR2 50% scored 2
  2. Kyren Williams RB1 48% scored
  3. Puka Nacua WR1 32% scored

Final result

BUF 37 – 34 LA (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BUF
Josh Allen QB 12/19210 yds1 TD1 INT
James Cook RB 25 car111 yds2 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Ray Davis RB 2 car2 yds0 TD1 rec, 31 yds
Khalil Shakir WR 3/380 yds0 TD
Ty Johnson RB 4/472 yds0 TD
Ray Davis RB 1/131 yds0 TD
LA
Matthew Stafford QB 40/54383 yds3 TD0 INT
Kyren Williams RB 16 car49 yds1 TD6 rec, 27 yds
Blake Corum RB 5 car19 yds1 TD3 rec, 53 yds
Puka Nacua WR 2 car9 yds0 TD17 rec, 138 yds
Puka Nacua WR 17/24138 yds1 TD
Tyler Higbee TE 5/683 yds0 TD
Blake Corum RB 3/453 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLA 50%—BUF wonNO PICK
Total points50.855.571UNDER · WRONG
MarginLA by 1.4LA −3.5BUF by 3BUF +3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Stafford LA 284.5309 OVER 383 74 More attempts (54 vs 38.7 expected) RIGHT
Josh Allen BUF 249.5205 UNDER 210 5 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
James Cook BUF 76.585 OVER 111 26 More carries (25 vs 18.1 expected) RIGHT
Blake Corum LA 33.541 OVER 19 22 Fewer carries (5 vs 8.4 expected) WRONG
Kyren Williams LA 69.569 no side 49 20 Less efficient (3.1 vs 4.8 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Ray Davis BUF 2.57 OVER 2 5 On target WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Davante Adams LA 62.599 OVER 51 48 Fewer targets (7 vs 9.1 expected) WRONG
Khalil Shakir BUF 46.536 UNDER 80 44 More efficient (26.7 vs 6.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Keon Coleman BUF 39.548 OVER 7 41 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.4 expected) WRONG
Puka Nacua LA 94.5118 OVER 138 20 More targets (24 vs 10.7 expected) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.