Week 5 · Sunday 16:05

DENDEN at LACLAC

SoFi Stadium · dome · Division game

DEN moneyline-192
LAC moneyline+160
SpreadDEN -3.5
Total42.5

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 1:50 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDEN 55%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.2points, both teams
Leo marginDEN by 1.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 730.514 217
Bo Nix DEN QB1 6.234.514 197

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 4.314.61.14 69
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 4.612.51.14 62
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 4.46.11.14 30
RJ Harvey DEN RB2 3.85.41.13 23

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Tre Harris LAC WR1 11.24.214 53
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR1 6.97.114 50
Ladd McConkey LAC WR2 8.45.314 50
Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 5.16.214 34
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR3 3.52.512 12
Marquez Valdes-Scantling LAC WR3 2.61.912 9
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

DEN Game status

2 out

  • Out Pat Surtain IICB Ankle
  • Out Riley MossCB Ribs
LAC Game status

7 out · 1 doubtful · 5 questionable

  • Out Brenen ThompsonWR Quadricep
  • Out Quentin JohnstonWR Chest
  • Out Joe AltT Neck
  • Out Kayode AwosikaG Fibula
  • Out Trevor PenningG Concussion
  • Out Donte JacksonCB Hamstring
  • Out Derwin JamesS Hamstring
  • Doubtful Trey LanceQB Groin
  • Questionable Ladd McConkeyWR Foot
  • Questionable Charlie KolarTE Forearm
  • Questionable Scott MatlockFB Foot
  • Questionable Branson TaylorG Neck
  • Questionable Rodney ShelleyCB Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

DEN This season LAC
46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 32
47 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 35
57 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 63
52 Overall 49
QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68 Last season QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DEN Per game, this season LAC
0.75Interceptions thrown1.50
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.25Fumbles lost0.75
0.25Fumbles forced1.50
1.25Takeaways2.50
1.00Giveaways2.25
+0.25Net turnover margin+0.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DEN Offense LAC
+0.024EPA per dropback-0.108
-2.4Completion % over expected-2.1
2.1%Interception rate3.7%
3.6%Sack rate taken9.5%
-0.040Rush EPA per carry-0.087
4.8%Explosive play rate5.3%
DEN Defense LAC
-0.016EPA allowed per play-0.054
5.31Yards allowed per play5.42
4.6%Sack rate4.4%
1.2%Interception rate forced1.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DEN, right is LAC.

DEN This season LAC
4Games4
204.8Pass yards/g204
81.3Rush yards/g121.5
5Passing TD4
3Interceptions thrown6
245.3Pass yards allowed/g225.5
142.8Rush yards allowed/g121.8
4Interceptions forced4
DEN Last season LAC
228.6Pass yards/g228.4
114.1Rush yards/g119.7
29Passing TD26
13Interceptions thrown14
209.2Pass yards allowed/g199
98.5Rush yards allowed/g107.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix481/135 60%819204.8 5 / 36.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
J.K. Dobbins446 1613.50
RJ Harvey312 494.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR14 16/2661.5%185 46.31
Courtland Sutton WR24 9/2240.9%86 21.50
Evan Engram TE4 6/1346.2%66 16.51
LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert471/119 59.7%816204 4 / 66.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton459 23843
Keaton Mitchell427 1244.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Harris WR14 13/2161.9%209 52.30
Quentin Johnston WR24 7/1936.8%108 270
Oronde Gadsden II TE4 9/1560%86 21.51

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix18414/658 62.9%4210233.9 28 / 126.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
RJ Harvey19165 5973.67
J.K. Dobbins10153 77254

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Courtland Sutton WR119 81/13858.7%1087 57.28
Troy Franklin WR217 65/10462.5%709 41.76
Evan Engram TE18 53/8264.6%487 27.11
LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Omarion Hampton (LAC, 47%) and Ladd McConkey (LAC, 27%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DEN Leo’s chance
  1. Jaylen Waddle WR1 25% no TD
  2. RJ Harvey RB2 22% no TD
  3. J.K. Dobbins RB1 19% scored
LAC Leo’s chance
  1. Omarion Hampton RB1 47% no TD
  2. Ladd McConkey WR2 27% no TD
  3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR3 12% no TD

Final result

DEN 23 – 17 LAC

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

DEN
Bo Nix QB 16/27123 yds1 TD0 INT
J.K. Dobbins RB 18 car68 yds1 TD2 rec, 6 yds
RJ Harvey RB 3 car7 yds0 TD
Jaylen Waddle WR 1 car9 yds0 TD2 rec, 19 yds
Evan Engram TE 4/455 yds0 TD
Jaylen Waddle WR 2/519 yds0 TD
Courtland Sutton WR 2/318 yds1 TD
LAC
Justin Herbert QB 14/24121 yds1 TD1 INT
Omarion Hampton RB 14 car33 yds0 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Kimani Vidal RB 8 car57 yds1 TD1 rec, -1 yds
Keaton Mitchell RB 6 car11 yds0 TD3 rec, 18 yds
Charlie Kolar TE 3/437 yds0 TD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 2/322 yds0 TD
Keaton Mitchell RB 3/418 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDEN 55%—DEN wonNO PICK
Total points43.241.540OVER · WRONG
MarginDEN by 1.7DEN −3.5DEN by 6LAC +3.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Justin Herbert LAC 200.5217 OVER 121 96 Less efficient (5 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG
Bo Nix DEN 221.5197 UNDER 123 74 Fewer attempts (27 vs 34.5 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Omarion Hampton LAC 41.569 OVER 33 36 Less efficient (2.4 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Keaton Mitchell LAC 32.530 UNDER 11 19 Less efficient (1.8 vs 4.4 yds/carry) RIGHT
RJ Harvey DEN 26.523 UNDER 7 16 Fewer carries (3 vs 5.4 expected) RIGHT
J.K. Dobbins DEN 50.562 OVER 68 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tre Harris LAC 49.553 OVER 16 37 Less efficient (4 vs 11.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jaylen Waddle DEN 55.550 UNDER 19 31 Less efficient (3.8 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Courtland Sutton DEN 38.534 UNDER 18 16 Fewer targets (3 vs 6.2 expected) RIGHT
Marquez Valdes-Scantling LAC —9 no side 22 13 More efficient (7.3 vs 2.6 yds/tgt)
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN 13.512 UNDER 6 6 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.