NFL 2026 · Week 4

Leo’s Week 4 card

Every game this week: each team’s chance to win, Leo’s projected total, and the two players most likely to score a touchdown. Every number is frozen before kickoff and graded after the game.

Prop calls this season: 269-284 · full record

How to read it: the win chance is how often Leo expects that team to win. It is information, not a pick. Leo’s top touchdown pick in a game scored 47% of the time in 2023 to 2025, so treat these as chances, not promises. Leo’s total is a projection with no over or under call. Nothing here is betting advice.

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15pm ET · Huntington Bank Field

Pittsburgh Steelers at

Cleveland Browns

Win chance: Browns 54%
Leo total: 41.6 points (line 38.5)
Most likely TD: Denzel Boston CLE 36% no TD
DK Metcalf PIT 30% no TD

Final: PIT 24, CLE 27

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30am ET · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Indianapolis Colts at

Washington Commanders

Win chance: Commanders 51%
Leo total: 51.3 points (line 46.5)
Most likely TD: Jonathan Taylor IND 61% scored
Stefon Diggs WAS 47% no TD

Final: IND 30, WAS 13

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium

Tennessee Titans at

Baltimore Ravens

Win chance: Ravens 79%
Leo total: 45.5 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Derrick Henry BAL 72% scored
Zay Flowers BAL 29% scored

Final: TEN 18, BAL 24

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Highmark Stadium

New England Patriots at

Win chance: Bills 72%
Leo total: 45.9 points (line 49.5)
Most likely TD: James Cook BUF 47% scored
TreVeyon Henderson NE 38% no TD

Final: NE 29, BUF 26

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Soldier Field

New York Jets at

Win chance: Bears 71%
Leo total: 46.5 points (line 43.5)
Most likely TD: D'Andre Swift CHI 48% no TD
Garrett Wilson NYJ 41% no TD

Final: NYJ 12, CHI 23

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Paycor Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars at

Cincinnati Bengals

Win chance: Jaguars 57%
Leo total: 46.8 points (line 51.5)
Most likely TD: Ja'Marr Chase CIN 50% no TD
Parker Washington JAX 40% no TD

Final: JAX 22, CIN 17

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Reliant Stadium

Dallas Cowboys at

Win chance: Cowboys 55%
Leo total: 49 points (line 48.5)
Most likely TD: David Montgomery HOU 46% no TD
CeeDee Lamb DAL 45% scored

Final: DAL 34, HOU 30

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · MetLife Stadium

Arizona Cardinals at

New York Giants

Win chance: Cardinals 53%
Leo total: 45 points (line 44.5)
Most likely TD: Cam Skattebo NYG 37% no TD
Michael Wilson ARI 30% no TD

Final: ARI 24, NYG 36

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Lincoln Financial Field

Los Angeles Rams at

Philadelphia Eagles

Win chance: Rams 58%
Leo total: 44.1 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Davante Adams LA 50% no TD
Kyren Williams LA 38% scored

Final: LA 24, PHI 20

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00pm ET · Raymond James Stadium

Green Bay Packers at

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win chance: Buccaneers 56%
Leo total: 46.7 points (line 38.5)
Most likely TD: Christian Watson GB 56% no TD
Emeka Egbuka TB 28% no TD

Final: GB 17, TB 14

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium

Miami Dolphins at

Minnesota Vikings

Win chance: Vikings 60%
Leo total: 42.3 points (line 38.5)
Most likely TD: Jauan Jennings MIN 29% no TD
Ollie Gordon II MIA 25% scored

Final: MIA 10, MIN 15

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25pm ET · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs at

Las Vegas Raiders

Win chance: Chiefs 67%
Leo total: 44.6 points (line 47.5)
Most likely TD: Cody White LV 39% no TD
Kenneth Walker III KC 38% scored

Final: KC 30, LV 27

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25pm ET · Lumen Field

Los Angeles Chargers at

Seattle Seahawks

Win chance: Seahawks 76%
Leo total: 42.6 points (line 42.5)
Most likely TD: Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 69% no TD
Omarion Hampton LAC 38% scored

Final: LAC 23, SEA 30

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25pm ET · Levi's Stadium

Denver Broncos at

San Francisco 49ers

Win chance: 49ers 76%
Leo total: 45.4 points (line 48.5)
Most likely TD: Christian McCaffrey SF 56% scored
Mike Evans SF 39% no TD

Final: DEN 14, SF 24

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20pm ET · Bank of America Stadium

Detroit Lions at

Carolina Panthers

Win chance: Lions 56%
Leo total: 52.5 points (line 52.5)
Most likely TD: Jahmyr Gibbs DET 67% scored
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 61% no TD

Final: DET 26, CAR 32

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15pm ET · Caesars Superdome

Atlanta Falcons at

New Orleans Saints

Win chance: Falcons 52%
Leo total: 45.8 points (line 47.5)
Most likely TD: Bijan Robinson ATL 42% scored
Chris Olave NO 37% no TD

Final: ATL 45, NO 24

Full matchup, injuries and props →

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. For entertainment and information only. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET.