Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

CHICHI at GBGB

Lambeau Field · outdoors · Division game

CHI moneyline-125
GB moneyline+105
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total46.5

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCHI 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.8points, both teams
Leo marginCHI by 6.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Case Keenum CHI QB1 7.132.30.91 211
Jordan Love GB QB1 735.80.94 207

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
D'Andre Swift CHI RB1 4.722.31.24 122
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 3.910.20.94 39
Kaleb Johnson GB RB2 4.360.94 26
Roschon Johnson CHI RB2 4.41.71.22 10

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Christian Watson GB WR2 10.96.70.94 66
Rome Odunze CHI WR3 1060.94 61
Luther Burden III CHI WR1 7.95.90.94 48
Matthew Golden GB WR1 6.96.30.94 41
Kalif Raymond CHI WR2 84.10.94 35
Skyy Moore GB WR3 2.51.80.94 7
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CHI Game status

2 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Kyle MonangaiRB Thumb / Toe
  • Out Keyshaun ElliottLB Quadricep
  • Questionable Caleb WilliamsQB Hamstring
  • Questionable Shemar TurnerDE Knee
  • Questionable Noah SewellLB Achilles
  • Questionable Kyler GordonCB Calf
GB Game status

2 out · 2 doubtful · 3 questionable

  • Out Chris BrooksRB Ankle
  • Out Savion WilliamsWR Ankle
  • Doubtful Aaron BanksG Knee / Toe
  • Doubtful Jacob MonkC Quadricep
  • Questionable Jager BurtonC Back
  • Questionable Anthony CampbellDT Ankle
  • Questionable Javon HargraveDT Toe

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CHI This season GB
57 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 57
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50
51 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47
56 Overall 48
QB 53 · OFF 63 · DEF 48 Last season QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CHI Per game, this season GB
0.50Interceptions thrown0.75
0.75Interceptions caught1.00
0.75Fumbles lost0.75
0.50Fumbles forced0.00
1.25Takeaways1.00
1.25Giveaways1.50
0Net turnover margin-0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CHI Offense GB
+0.152EPA per dropback+0.135
+1.0Completion % over expected-0.7
1.7%Interception rate1.6%
4.3%Sack rate taken5.1%
+0.015Rush EPA per carry-0.192
6.5%Explosive play rate6.5%
CHI Defense GB
+0.008EPA allowed per play+0.040
6.14Yards allowed per play5.24
4.3%Sack rate3.5%
1.8%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CHI, right is GB.

CHI This season GB
4Games4
244Pass yards/g260.3
196.3Rush yards/g58
4Passing TD8
2Interceptions thrown3
194Pass yards allowed/g200.5
102.5Rush yards allowed/g139.3
3Interceptions forced4
CHI Last season GB
242.6Pass yards/g231.6
142.6Rush yards/g118.7
32Passing TD30
12Interceptions thrown7
244.6Pass yards allowed/g215.4
131.4Rush yards allowed/g116.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CHI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams236/55 65.5%407203.5 2 / 17.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift469 3114.53
Kyle Monangai460 3245.43

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Luther Burden III WR14 19/2965.5%219 54.81
Kalif Raymond WR24 21/2391.3%220 551
Colston Loveland TE4 11/1861.1%91 22.80
GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love487/154 56.5%1041260.3 8 / 36.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd430 812.70
Kaleb Johnson420 8040

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Matthew Golden WR14 18/3748.6%274 68.52
Christian Watson WR24 20/3262.5%331 82.84
Tucker Kraft TE4 15/2462.5%148 371

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CHI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Caleb Williams19377/658 57.3%4560240 31 / 126.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
D'Andre Swift18255 12174.810
Kyle Monangai19190 8464.55

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rome Odunze WR114 48/10247.1%749 53.56
DJ Moore WR219 61/10061%798 428
Colston Loveland TE18 70/10765.4%906 50.36
GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: D'Andre Swift (CHI, 52%) and Christian Watson (GB, 47%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CHI Leo’s chance
  1. D'Andre Swift RB1 52% scored
  2. Rome Odunze WR3 19% no TD
  3. Luther Burden III WR1 19% no TD
GB Leo’s chance
  1. Christian Watson WR2 47% scored 2
  2. Matthew Golden WR1 22% no TD
  3. MarShawn Lloyd RB1 16% scored 2

Final result

CHI 7 – 31 GB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CHI
Tyson Bagent QB 12/2187 yds0 TD2 INT
D'Andre Swift RB 9 car43 yds1 TD4 rec, 30 yds
Roschon Johnson RB 5 car6 yds0 TD5 rec, 34 yds
Luther Burden III WR 4 car2 yds0 TD4 rec, 47 yds
Luther Burden III WR 4/647 yds0 TD
Rome Odunze WR 3/940 yds0 TD
Roschon Johnson RB 5/734 yds0 TD
GB
Jordan Love QB 25/31367 yds2 TD0 INT
MarShawn Lloyd RB 10 car31 yds2 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Kaleb Johnson RB 7 car26 yds0 TD
Pierre Strong RB 5 car7 yds0 TD3 rec, 11 yds
Christian Watson WR 6/8143 yds2 TD
Matthew Golden WR 6/7123 yds0 TD
Tucker Kraft TE 5/564 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCHI 58%—GB wonNO PICK
Total points45.847.538UNDER · RIGHT
MarginCHI by 6.7CHI −1.5GB by 24CHI −1.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Love GB 244.5207 UNDER 367 160 More efficient (11.8 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG
Case Keenum CHI —211 no side 108 103 Fewer attempts (19 vs 32.3 expected)

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
D'Andre Swift CHI 84.5122 OVER 43 79 Fewer carries (9 vs 22.3 expected) WRONG
MarShawn Lloyd GB 27.539 OVER 31 8 On target RIGHT
Roschon Johnson CHI 21.510 UNDER 6 4 On target RIGHT
Kaleb Johnson GB 32.526 UNDER 26 0 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Golden GB 57.541 UNDER 123 82 More efficient (17.6 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Christian Watson GB 61.566 OVER 143 77 More efficient (17.9 vs 10.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Kalif Raymond CHI 27.535 OVER 6 29 Less efficient (1.5 vs 8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rome Odunze CHI 39.561 OVER 40 21 Less efficient (4.4 vs 10 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Skyy Moore GB 12.57 UNDER 0 7 On target RIGHT
Luther Burden III CHI 46.548 no side 47 1 On target NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.