Week 5 · Sunday 16:25

DETDET at ARIARI

State Farm Stadium · closed

DET moneyline-265
ARI moneyline+215
SpreadDET -5.5
Total55.5

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 2:57 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceDET 65%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total53points, both teams
Leo marginDET by 4.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jared Goff DET QB1 7.638.214 297
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 5.938.81.24 257

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB1 4.919.11.14 100
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB1 4.3131.14 60
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB2 3.97.51.14 32
Sione Vaki DET RB2 4.41.91.14 10

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR1 6.810.914 82
Jameson Williams DET WR2 10.56.214 71
Michael Wilson ARI WR1 5.99.41.24 68
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 7.64.41.23 42
Isaac TeSlaa DET WR3 11.13.214 40
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI WR3 5.54.71.24 33
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

DET Game status

4 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Ben BartchG Foot
  • Out Cade MaysC Wrist
  • Out Rock Ya-SinCB Hamstring
  • Out Brian BranchS Achilles
  • Questionable Tyleik WilliamsDT Foot
ARI Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Isaiah AdamsG Ankle
  • Out Andrew WingardS Knee
  • Questionable Walter NolenDT Calf
  • Questionable Karson ShararLB Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

DET This season ARI
67 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47
66 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 40
55 Overall 41
QB 64 · OFF 63 · DEF 55 Last season QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

DET Per game, this season ARI
0.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.50Interceptions caught0.75
0.25Fumbles lost0.00
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.50Takeaways1.75
0.25Giveaways1.00
+1.25Net turnover margin+0.75

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

DET Offense ARI
+0.228EPA per dropback-0.019
+1.6Completion % over expected+1.7
0.7%Interception rate2.2%
5.5%Sack rate taken6.4%
-0.063Rush EPA per carry-0.044
6.4%Explosive play rate3.6%
DET Defense ARI
+0.076EPA allowed per play+0.071
5.95Yards allowed per play6.07
4.9%Sack rate3.1%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is DET, right is ARI.

DET This season ARI
4Games4
303.5Pass yards/g204.5
102Rush yards/g100.5
9Passing TD6
0Interceptions thrown4
327Pass yards allowed/g247.8
119.8Rush yards allowed/g117.5
2Interceptions forced3
DET Last season ARI
268.6Pass yards/g256.1
120.1Rush yards/g93.1
35Passing TD29
8Interceptions thrown11
236.9Pass yards allowed/g242.8
114.5Rush yards allowed/g126.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

DET 2026

Quarterback Leo QB67

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff4109/161 67.7%1214303.5 9 / 07.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs480 3534.45
Sione Vaki49 404.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR14 31/4667.4%303 75.85
Jameson Williams WR24 16/2564%229 57.30
Sam LaPorta TE4 22/3268.8%228 572
ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett4103/152 67.8%818204.5 6 / 45.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jeremiyah Love455 2234.11
Tyler Allgeier432 1123.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR14 25/4456.8%258 64.51
Kendrick Bourne WR23 12/1485.7%108 360
Trey McBride TE4 33/4671.7%242 60.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

DET 2025

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jared Goff17393/578 68%4564268.5 34 / 87.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jahmyr Gibbs17243 1223513
David Montgomery17158 7164.58

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR117 117/17268%1401 82.411
Jameson Williams WR217 65/10263.7%1117 65.77
Sam LaPorta TE9 40/4981.6%489 54.33
ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 64%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, 61%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
DET Leo’s chance
  1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 64% scored 2
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 61% no TD
  3. Isaac TeSlaa WR3 18% no TD
ARI Leo’s chance
  1. Tyler Allgeier RB2 31% no TD
  2. Michael Wilson WR1 31% no TD
  3. Jeremiyah Love RB1 28% no TD

Final result

DET 45 – 21 ARI

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

DET
Jared Goff QB 19/30271 yds3 TD0 INT
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 25 car151 yds2 TD5 rec, 56 yds
Sione Vaki RB 6 car11 yds0 TD
Sam LaPorta TE 5/588 yds1 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 6/1169 yds0 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 5/656 yds0 TD
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB 29/47292 yds3 TD1 INT
Jeremiyah Love RB 12 car22 yds0 TD
Tyler Allgeier RB 3 car7 yds0 TD2 rec, 9 yds
Bam Knight RB 1 car8 yds0 TD
Kendrick Bourne WR 5/870 yds0 TD
Trey McBride TE 9/1066 yds1 TD
Elijah Higgins TE 3/357 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerDET 65%—DET wonRIGHT
Total points5355.566UNDER · WRONG
MarginDET by 4.6DET −5.5DET by 24no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jacoby Brissett ARI 272.5257 UNDER 292 35 More attempts (47 vs 38.8 expected) WRONG
Jared Goff DET 285.5297 no side 271 26 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 90.5100 OVER 151 51 More carries (25 vs 19.1 expected) RIGHT
Jeremiyah Love ARI 45.560 OVER 22 38 Less efficient (1.8 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Tyler Allgeier ARI 27.532 OVER 7 25 Fewer carries (3 vs 7.5 expected) WRONG
Sione Vaki DET 8.510 OVER 11 1 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Isaac TeSlaa DET 25.540 OVER 0 40 Less efficient (0 vs 11.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Michael Wilson ARI 80.568 UNDER 30 38 Fewer targets (7 vs 9.4 expected) RIGHT
Kendrick Bourne ARI 32.542 OVER 70 28 More targets (8 vs 4.4 expected) RIGHT
Jameson Williams DET 53.571 OVER 47 24 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.2 expected) WRONG
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 81.582 no side 69 13 Less efficient (6.3 vs 6.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.