Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

NENE at BUFBUF

Highmark Stadium · outdoors · grass · Division game

NE moneyline+275
BUF moneyline-345
SpreadBUF -7
Total49.5

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 11:40 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceBUF 72%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.9points, both teams
Leo marginBUF by 5.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drake Maye NE QB1 827.61.13 231
Josh Allen BUF QB1 8.728.70.93 222

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
James Cook BUF RB1 5.219.313 100
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB1 4.911.912 59
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB2 4.110.113 42
Ray Davis BUF RB2 4.71.512 8

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Romeo Doubs NE WR3 11.34.51.13 58
Mack Hollins NE WR1 9.34.91.13 53
Keon Coleman BUF WR3 9.23.90.93 37
DJ Moore BUF WR1 6.65.30.93 36
Khalil Shakir BUF WR2 65.50.93 34
DeMario Douglas NE WR2 6.83.81.13 31
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NE Game status

3 out · 7 questionable

  • Out Christian BarmoreDT Shoulder
  • Out Christian GonzalezCB Shoulder
  • Out Brenden SchoolerS Back
  • Questionable Eli RaridonTE Thigh
  • Questionable Reggie GilliamFB Knee
  • Questionable Morgan MosesT Foot
  • Questionable Christian EllissLB Chest
  • Questionable Dre'Mont JonesLB Shoulder
  • Questionable Channing CanadaCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Craig WoodsonS Shoulder
BUF Game status

1 doubtful · 2 questionable

  • Doubtful T.J. SandersDE Illness
  • Questionable Ray DavisRB Hamstring
  • Questionable Christian BenfordCB Toe

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NE This season BUF
46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 65
47 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 72
60 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 49
54 Overall 60
QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60 Last season QB 65 · OFF 68 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NE Per game, this season BUF
2.00Interceptions thrown0.67
0.67Interceptions caught0.33
0.67Fumbles lost1.00
0.67Fumbles forced1.00
1.33Takeaways1.33
2.67Giveaways1.67
-1.33Net turnover margin-0.33

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NE Offense BUF
+0.011EPA per dropback+0.237
+5.9Completion % over expected+4.3
4.1%Interception rate2.2%
9.8%Sack rate taken7.7%
-0.034Rush EPA per carry+0.087
7.1%Explosive play rate8.0%
NE Defense BUF
-0.064EPA allowed per play+0.027
5.11Yards allowed per play5.63
3.9%Sack rate3.9%
1.2%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NE, right is BUF.

NE This season BUF
3Games3
210.3Pass yards/g262
109.3Rush yards/g155
1Passing TD5
6Interceptions thrown2
189.7Pass yards allowed/g275.7
108.3Rush yards allowed/g107
2Interceptions forced1
NE Last season BUF
251.8Pass yards/g238.8
126.8Rush yards/g156.6
37Passing TD33
12Interceptions thrown12
200.9Pass yards allowed/g177.9
99.2Rush yards allowed/g133.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye351/80 63.8%585195 1 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson331 1163.70
TreVeyon Henderson224 994.11

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mack Hollins WR13 12/1675%156 520
DeMario Douglas WR23 7/1450%67 22.30
Hunter Henry TE3 7/1070%71 23.70
BUF 2026

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen356/86 65.1%786262 5 / 29.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook358 34662
Frank Gore Jr.11 330

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DJ Moore WR13 11/1861.1%167 55.71
Khalil Shakir WR23 8/1553.3%94 31.30
Dalton Kincaid TE3 14/1782.4%263 87.71

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98
BUF 2025

Quarterback Leo QB65

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Josh Allen18372/534 69.7%4224234.7 29 / 127.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
James Cook19348 17845.112
Ray Davis1958 2754.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Khalil Shakir WR118 91/11678.4%876 48.74
Keon Coleman WR214 40/6363.5%450 32.15
Dalton Kincaid TE14 48/6080%682 48.77

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: James Cook (BUF, 47%) and TreVeyon Henderson (NE, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NE Leo’s chance
  1. TreVeyon Henderson RB1 38% no TD
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson RB2 23% scored
  3. Romeo Doubs WR3 20% scored 2
BUF Leo’s chance
  1. James Cook RB1 47% scored
  2. DJ Moore WR1 27% no TD
  3. Keon Coleman WR3 16% scored

Final result

NE 29 – 26 BUF

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NE
Drake Maye QB 22/37269 yds3 TD1 INT
TreVeyon Henderson RB 14 car42 yds0 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson RB 13 car47 yds1 TD3 rec, 27 yds
Hunter Henry TE 5/562 yds0 TD
Romeo Doubs WR 6/958 yds2 TD
Mack Hollins WR 3/453 yds0 TD
BUF
Josh Allen QB 23/33253 yds1 TD1 INT
James Cook RB 12 car75 yds1 TD2 rec, 8 yds
DJ Moore WR 1 car6 yds0 TD1 rec, 11 yds
Ty Johnson RB 1 car3 yds0 TD2 rec, 9 yds
Keon Coleman WR 6/7116 yds1 TD
Khalil Shakir WR 7/882 yds0 TD
Dawson Knox TE 2/213 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBUF 72%—NE wonWRONG
Total points45.949.555UNDER · WRONG
MarginBUF by 5.8BUF −7NE by 3NE +7 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake Maye NE 231.5231 no side 269 38 More attempts (37 vs 27.6 expected) NO LEAN
Josh Allen BUF 242.5222 UNDER 253 31 More attempts (33 vs 28.7 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
James Cook BUF 85.5100 OVER 75 25 Fewer carries (12 vs 19.3 expected) WRONG
TreVeyon Henderson NE 41.559 OVER 42 17 Less efficient (3 vs 4.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 32.542 OVER 47 5 On target RIGHT
Ray Davis BUF —8 no side 3 5 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Keon Coleman BUF 13.537 OVER 116 79 More efficient (16.6 vs 9.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Khalil Shakir BUF 37.534 UNDER 82 48 More efficient (10.3 vs 6 yds/tgt) WRONG
DJ Moore BUF 52.536 UNDER 11 25 Fewer targets (2 vs 5.3 expected) RIGHT
DeMario Douglas NE 29.531 OVER 15 16 Fewer targets (3 vs 3.8 expected) WRONG
Mack Hollins NE 42.553 OVER 53 0 On target RIGHT
Romeo Doubs NE 39.558 OVER 58 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.