Week 4 · Sunday 13:00
TEN
at
BAL
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
TEN moneyline+550
BAL moneyline-800
SpreadBAL -11.5
Total42.5
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 11:40 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceBAL 79%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.5points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 13.2expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson BAL QB1 |
9.2 | 25.4 | 0.9 | 3 |
211 |
| Cam Ward TEN QB1 |
5.8 | 31 | 1 | 3 |
171 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL RB1 |
5 | 20.7 | 1.1 | 3 |
110 |
| Tony Pollard TEN RB1 |
4.5 | 13.1 | 1 | 3 |
59 |
| Tyjae Spears TEN RB2 |
4.4 | 4.7 | 1 | 3 |
21 |
| Justice Hill BAL RB2 |
4.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 3 |
18 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Zay Flowers BAL WR1 |
15 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 2 |
100 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR2 |
6.9 | 7.6 | 1 | 3 |
56 |
| Carnell Tate TEN WR1 |
6.1 | 7.2 | 1 | 3 |
47 |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 |
9.2 | 4.2 | 1 | 3 |
43 |
| Rashod Bateman BAL WR2 |
6.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 3 |
26 |
| Chris Moore BAL WR3 |
10.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3 |
24 |
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Injury report
The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
TEN
Game status
2 questionable
- Questionable
Tyjae SpearsRB
Ankle
- Questionable
Kevin Winston Jr.S
Shoulder
BAL
Game status
3 out · 3 questionable
- Out
Ethan PocicC
Knee
- Out
Jovaughn GwynC
Ankle
- Out
Trey HendricksonLB
Finger
- Questionable
Chris MooreWR
Ankle
- Questionable
Zay FlowersWR
Hamstring / Not injury related - resting player
- Questionable
Ronnie StanleyT
Toe / Not injury related - resting player
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
TEN
This season
BAL
34
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
60
37
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
66
41
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
43
39
Overall
54
QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37
Last season
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| TEN |
Per game, this season |
BAL |
| 0.33 | Interceptions thrown | 0.33 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Interceptions caught | 0.33 |
|---|
| 0.00 | Fumbles lost | 0.33 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Fumbles forced | 1.00 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Takeaways | 1.33 |
|---|
| 0.33 | Giveaways | 0.67 |
|---|
| +0.67 | Net turnover margin | +0.67 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| TEN |
Offense |
BAL |
| -0.186 | EPA per dropback | +0.141 |
|---|
| -1.3 | Completion % over expected | +4.8 |
|---|
| 1.3% | Interception rate | 2.1% |
|---|
| 7.4% | Sack rate taken | 8.2% |
|---|
| -0.014 | Rush EPA per carry | +0.072 |
|---|
| 4.5% | Explosive play rate | 7.6% |
|---|
| TEN |
Defense |
BAL |
| +0.062 | EPA allowed per play | +0.044 |
|---|
| 5.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.56 |
|---|
| 3.7% | Sack rate | 2.9% |
|---|
| 0.8% | Interception rate forced | 0.8% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TEN, right is BAL.
| TEN |
This season |
BAL |
| 3 | Games | 3 |
|---|
| 168 | Pass yards/g | 248.3 |
|---|
| 90.3 | Rush yards/g | 167.3 |
|---|
| 2 | Passing TD | 4 |
|---|
| 1 | Interceptions thrown | 1 |
|---|
| 199 | Pass yards allowed/g | 231.3 |
|---|
| 126.3 | Rush yards allowed/g | 105 |
|---|
| 2 | Interceptions forced | 1 |
|---|
| TEN |
Last season |
BAL |
| 190.6 | Pass yards/g | 192.8 |
|---|
| 93.5 | Rush yards/g | 156.6 |
|---|
| 15 | Passing TD | 23 |
|---|
| 8 | Interceptions thrown | 11 |
|---|
| 248.3 | Pass yards allowed/g | 259 |
|---|
| 114.6 | Rush yards allowed/g | 106.6 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
TEN
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB34
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Cam Ward | 3 | 55/88 |
62.5% | 504 | 168 |
2 / 1 | 5.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 38 |
173 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 13 |
58 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Carnell Tate WR1 | 3 |
13/20 | 65% | 123 |
41 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | 3 |
13/18 | 72.2% | 104 |
34.7 | 1 |
| Gunnar Helm TE | 3 |
8/11 | 72.7% | 55 |
18.3 | 0 |
BAL
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB60
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 53/76 |
69.7% | 745 | 248.3 |
4 / 1 | 9.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 66 |
301 | 4.6 | 6 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 13 |
57 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Rashod Bateman WR1 | 3 |
9/13 | 69.2% | 125 |
41.7 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers WR2 | 2 |
10/12 | 83.3% | 234 |
117 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews TE | 3 |
13/18 | 72.2% | 122 |
40.7 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
TEN
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB31
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Cam Ward | 17 | 323/540 |
59.8% | 3169 | 186.4 |
15 / 7 | 5.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 242 |
1082 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 13 | 72 |
283 | 3.9 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Elic Ayomanor WR1 | 16 |
41/89 | 46.1% | 515 |
32.2 | 4 |
| Chimere Dike WR2 | 17 |
48/74 | 64.9% | 423 |
24.9 | 4 |
| Chig Okonkwo TE | 17 |
56/79 | 70.9% | 560 |
32.9 | 2 |
BAL
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB51
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 192/302 |
63.6% | 2549 | 196.1 |
21 / 7 | 8.4 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 307 |
1595 | 5.2 | 16 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 13 | 59 |
341 | 5.8 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Zay Flowers WR1 | 17 |
86/118 | 72.9% | 1211 |
71.2 | 5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins WR2 | 17 |
22/39 | 56.4% | 330 |
19.4 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews TE | 17 |
48/70 | 68.6% | 422 |
24.8 | 5 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Derrick Henry (BAL, 72%) and Zay Flowers (BAL, 29%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TEN
Leo’s chance
- Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2
25%
scored
- Elic Ayomanor
WR3
25%
no TD
- Tony Pollard
RB1
16%
scored
BAL
Leo’s chance
- Derrick Henry
RB1
72%
scored
- Zay Flowers
WR1
29%
scored
- Rashod Bateman
WR2
21%
no TD
Final result
TEN 18
– 24 BAL
How the game was played
Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.
TEN
| Cam Ward QB |
20/31 | 222 yds | 1 TD | 1 INT |
| Tony Pollard RB |
16 car | 48 yds | 1 TD | 2 rec, 2 yds |
| Nicholas Singleton RB |
3 car | 2 yds | 0 TD | |
| Tyjae Spears RB |
2 car | 7 yds | 0 TD | 1 rec, -1 yds |
| Carnell Tate WR |
9/12 | 145 yds | 0 TD | |
| Elic Ayomanor WR |
1/1 | 22 yds | 0 TD | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR |
3/5 | 19 yds | 1 TD | |
BAL
| Lamar Jackson QB |
15/20 | 222 yds | 2 TD | 0 INT |
| Derrick Henry RB |
23 car | 73 yds | 1 TD | 2 rec, 6 yds |
| Justice Hill RB |
1 car | 3 yds | 0 TD | 2 rec, 22 yds |
| Zay Flowers WR |
8/10 | 118 yds | 1 TD | |
| Rashod Bateman WR |
2/2 | 46 yds | 0 TD | |
| Matthew Hibner TE |
2/2 | 34 yds | 0 TD | |
How Leo’s read held up
What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.
| Market | Leo expected | Line | Actual | Leo’s side and result |
|---|
| Winner | BAL 79% | — | BAL won | RIGHT |
| Total points | 45.5 | 42.5 | 42 | OVER · WRONG |
| Margin | BAL by 13.2 | BAL −11.5 | BAL by 6 | BAL −11.5 · WRONG |
“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.
Passing yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Cam Ward TEN |
187.5 | 171 |
UNDER |
222 |
51 |
More efficient (7.2 vs 5.8 yds/att) |
WRONG |
| Lamar Jackson BAL |
213.5 | 211 |
no side |
222 |
11 |
On target |
NO LEAN |
Rushing yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL |
98.5 | 110 |
OVER |
73 |
37 |
Less efficient (3.2 vs 5 yds/carry) |
WRONG |
| Justice Hill BAL |
16.5 | 18 |
OVER |
3 |
15 |
Fewer carries (1 vs 3.7 expected) |
WRONG |
| Tyjae Spears TEN |
14.5 | 21 |
OVER |
7 |
14 |
Fewer carries (2 vs 4.7 expected) |
WRONG |
| Tony Pollard TEN |
48.5 | 59 |
OVER |
48 |
11 |
Less efficient (3 vs 4.5 yds/carry) |
WRONG |
Receiving yards
| Player | Line | Leo | Side | Actual | Off by | Main reason | Result |
|---|
| Carnell Tate TEN |
44.5 | 47 |
OVER |
145 |
98 |
More efficient (12.1 vs 6.1 yds/tgt) |
RIGHT |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN |
37.5 | 56 |
OVER |
19 |
37 |
Fewer targets (5 vs 7.6 expected) |
WRONG |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN |
19.5 | 43 |
OVER |
22 |
21 |
Fewer targets (1 vs 4.2 expected) |
RIGHT |
| Rashod Bateman BAL |
27.5 | 26 |
UNDER |
46 |
20 |
More efficient (23 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) |
WRONG |
| Zay Flowers BAL |
73.5 | 100 |
OVER |
118 |
18 |
More targets (10 vs 6.8 expected) |
RIGHT |
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.